000 AXNT20 KNHC 151804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal Liberia, Africa near 05N09W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that last location to 01N23W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered showers are occurring from 05S to 02N between 22W and 32W. A surface trough is N of the ITCZ extending from 08N18W to 03N21W with scattered to isolated showers within 150 nm either side of the trough axis. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Latest scatterometer and surface data show light to gentle southerly flow across the eastern half of the basin, and mainly moderate southerly wind over the wester half of the gulf. Although dry air subsidence is occurring throughout the gulf supporting fair weather, a plume of shallow moisture is observed in the low- levels LPW imagery. This plume is advecting moisture from the tropical Pacific waters through the isthmus of Tehuantepec to the NW Gulf of Mexico where fog and haze is being reported. The ridge will prevail across the Gulf waters through early Sun, maintaining moderate SE return flow over the western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by early Mon as broad low pres forms off Veracruz in the SW Gulf through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tue morning, then lift NW across the northern Gulf by late Tue as the low moves inland over NE Mexico and dissipates. The front will then attempt to push slightly eastward again by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough extends from the SW N Atlc to a base over the western half of the Caribbean. The upper trough continue to support a surface trough extending from the Cayman Islands to the coast of SE Nicaragua, and a dissipating stationary front that extends from a low in the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba and across Jamaica. Diffluent flow to the east of the trough aloft supports broken skies and isolated showers across the Windward Passage, Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. Both the surface trough and the weakening stationary front will dissipate through the afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds are over the central and eastern Caribbean and will continue through Sat night. However, winds will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high pres building N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Tue night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia Sun night and Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough over the SW N Atlc supports a complex frontal system extending as a warm front from 31N62W SW to a 1014 mb low near 26N70W then as a cold front SW to a second 1014 mb low located just SW of the southern Bahamas. Low level moisture inflow from the Caribbean into this system supports scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 20N between 60W and 73W. Two weak troughs, one ahead and another following the frontal system, enhance this area of convection. The remainder central and eastern Atlc is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high near 30N37W. The front will slowly push E of the area through Sat night. A new cold front will move across the waters N of 29N early Sun, pushing E of 65W by early Mon. Another cold front will move across the waters N of 29N Mon afternoon, pushing E of 65W by early Tue. Return flow under ridging will prevail Tue afternoon and night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos