000 AXNT20 KNHC 151150 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered showers are noted from 03N between 14W-21W and south from the Equator to 03S between 22W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida and extends across the basin. Partly cloudy skies prevail with no significant convection. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin. A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through early Sunday, maintaining moderate SE return flow over the western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Sun night as broad low pressure forms off Veracruz in the southwest Gulf through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tue morning, then lift northward across the northern Gulf by late Tue as the low moves inland over northeast Mexico and dissipates. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak low pressure is centered near the central Bahamas with a stationary front extending southward into the NW Caribbean to another low pressure near 17N82W. A remnant trough extends to the south of the low pressure to 15N82W. An upper-level trough axis extends from the western Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 20N. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted. Moderate to fresh trades currently cover the eastern and central Caribbean mainly east of 73W while a gentle to moderate trades cover the southern and NW Caribbean sea. Weak low pressure between Grand Cayman Island and Swan Island will dissipate early this morning, with a remnant trough persisting through late today. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean through Sat night will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the south central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Tue night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia Sun night and Mon night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands will subside through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N62W to a 1014 mb low near 26N73W. A stationary front extends from the low to another low over the central Bahamas near 23N75W. An upper- level trough axis extends from the western Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper- level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 20N into the eastern Bahamas and western Atlantic mainly west of 65W-75W. Scattered showers cover the area within 180 nm on either side of the frontal system. Farther east, a 1030 mb high is centered near 31N39W, and extends across most of the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from 31N13W to 21N29W to 20N38W to a dissipating cold front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail behind this front. A nearly stationary front extends from 31N62W to a 1014 mb low pressure located near 26N73W to another low pressure near 23N75W. The lows will likely merge then move north of the area through tonight along the weakening front. The front will weaken to a trough Sat, which will shift E of the area Sun ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast late Mon. The front will stall along 29N east of 75W into Tue, then lift northward Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres