000 AXNT20 KNHC 141725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 02N-05N between 11W-16W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of the Equator mainly west of 19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure over NE Florida extends a ridge across the basin. Partly cloudy skies prevail with no significant convection noted. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Surface ridging will dominate across the Gulf waters through Sun afternoon. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday evening and extend from the Florida Big Bend through Tampico, Mexico by Mon afternoon. The front will then stall across the northern gulf waters through Tue morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends across east-central Cuba and the NW Caribbean from 22N78W to a 1014 mb low near 19N83W to 17N83W. An upper-level trough axis extends from the Florida Peninsula to the NW Caribbean Sea to Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 18N between 78W-82W. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted. Fresh to locally strong trades currently cover the eastern and central Caribbean, east of 75W. The weak low pressure area near 19N83W will dissipate later today with a remnant trough prevailing through early Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will dominate the central and eastern Caribbean waters through Sat night. Winds and seas will then increase in the southern Caribbean early on Sunday due to high pressure building north of the area. Near gale force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia Sun night through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from Bermuda to a 1014 mb low near 26N74W. A stationary front extends from the low to east-central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms cover the area within 240 nm west and 30 nm east of the frontal system, from central Cuba to 31N, including the central and northwest Bahamas. The western edge of this activity remains to the east of South Florida. Farther east, a 1030 mb high is centered near 31N45W, extending ridging over most of the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N20W to 24N30W to 22N40W to 22N44W dissipating to 24N52W. Fresh to strong winds are behind this front. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 30N between 13W-20W. The stationary portion of the front in the western Atlantic will dissipate tonight leaving a remnant trough that will move across the central and northern Bahamas through Fri morning. The low near 26N74W will move NE through early Fri and the front will stall N of 29N. Fresh to strong winds are expected NE of the Bahamas in the west and north semicircles of the low through Fri morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen