000
AXNT20 KNHC 141141
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 06N11W and extends to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 
that point to 03S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
south of the equator mainly west of 30W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure is present across the basin. Fair weather
prevails with no significant convection noted. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds across the eastern 
Gulf waters and gentle to moderate over the western Gulf. 

Winds are diminishing across the basin as a cold front exits the 
region. Southerly return flow will prevail over the Gulf through 
Saturday night. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf of 
Mexico on Sunday morning. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to a 1014 mb 
surface low near 17N83W. The front continues to Honduras near 
15N83W then across Central America. Scattered moderate convection
is noted mainly north of 18N between 81W-83W. In the eastern, 
central and southern Caribbean, no significant convection is 
noted. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades east of 
69W, while moderate to fresh winds are noted west of 67W.

A weak low pressure area near 17N83W will dissipate later today. 
Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will continue in the 
central Caribbean through Saturday night. Winds and seas will 
increase in the southern Caribbean Sunday and Monday as high 
pressure builds north of the area. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic near 31N68W to the
eastern Bahamas near 23N75W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed along and west of the front. Farther east, another cold 
front extends from 31N22W to 24N40W to 25N54W. Strong winds are 
near and behind this front mainly north of 26N. 

A cold front extending from 31N70W to central Cuba will drift 
slowly eastward today. A weak low pressure area is forecast to 
develop along the front east of the Bahamas later today, then 
persist into Friday. The low is expected to move NE of the area 
Friday night, with a trough extending south of the low to Turks 
and Caicos. Expect fresh NE winds and seas around 8 feet north of 
the frontal boundary as the low center moves NE. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres