000 AXNT20 KNHC 140607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 107 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W and extends to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04S36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the equator mainly west of 28W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also present 200 nm south of the monsoon trough from 03N-04N between 11W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has exit the Gulf of Mexico with a 1024 mb high pressure building across the basin. Fair weather conditions prevail with no significant convection noted. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds across the eastern Gulf waters and gentle to moderate over the NE Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds, and seas up to 9 ft are still noted over the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel, in the wake of the cold front currently located over the NW Caribbean. These wind speeds will diminish to moderate to fresh tonight. Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf region from Thursday through Saturday night. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba near 21N79W to a 1014 mb surface low near 17N84W. The front continues to Honduras near 15N84W then across Central America. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly north of 18N between 74W-82W. In the eastern, central and southern Caribbean, no significant convection is noted. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades east of 69W, while moderate to fresh winds are noted west of 67W. Fresh to strong trade winds, with sea height reaching 8 ft at least, will continue in the south-central Caribbean until Thursday morning. The wind speeds will slow down to fresh, and the sea heights will diminish to 6 to 7 feet, from Thursday morning until Saturday night. The fresh to strong winds and the sea heights reaching 8 feet will start to return, from Saturday night through the end of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic near 31N70W to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and west of the front. Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N25W to to 24N40W to 25N54W. Strong winds are near and behind this front mainly north of 26N. A weak surface trough is over the east Atlantic extending from 31N20W to 25N23W. A cold front extending from 31N70W to central Cuba will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Thu morning. A weak low pressure center is forecast to develop along the front east of the Bahamas on Thursday, and persist into Friday. The low pressure center is expected to move NE of the area on Friday night, with a trough extending south of the low to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Expect fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights of 8 feet N of the frontal boundary as the low center moves NE. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres