000 AXNT20 KNHC 131729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1229 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 03N13W to 01N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S27W to the coast of Brazil near 06S35W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is inside a box bounded by 10S35W 04S19W 03N42W 01S46W and along the coast of South America to 10S35W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 02N-05N between 04W-12W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has moved SE of the Gulf of Mexico and extends from 25N80W to 23N83W to 20N86W as of 1500 UTC. Numerous moderate convection is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, east of a line extending from 29N83W to 27N85W to 25N87W to 21N87W, including the Florida peninsula, Florida Straits, western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Surface high pressure is building in over the northwest Gulf. In between the cold front and the high pressure, strong NE winds currently cover the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. These winds will continue today. Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf region from Thursday through Saturday night. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from western Cuba near 23N83W to 21N85W to a 1016 mb surface low near 18N86W, continuing to NW Honduras near 15N87W to west-central Guatemala near 16N91W. Numerous moderate convection is N of 18N between 84W-87W, including over the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence in the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere N of 18N and W of 80W, and in the Gulf of Honduras N of 15.5N and W of 84W. In the eastern and central Caribbean, no significant convection is noted. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades over the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds, and sea heights at 8 feet at least, will continue in the central and south central Caribbean Sea until Thursday morning. The wind speeds will slow down to fresh, and the sea heights will diminish to 6 to 7 feet, from Thursday morning until Saturday night. The fresh to strong winds and the sea heights reaching 8 feet will return from Saturday night through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic at 1500 UTC extending from 31N75W to West End Grand Bahama Island to 25N80W to western Cuba near 23N83W. Numerous moderate convection extends from 30 nm E of the cold front westward across the Florida peninsula and Florida Keys to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Farther E, a cold front extends from 31N36W to 28N42W to 27N47W to 28N53W to 30N57W. Strong winds are near and behind this front N of 29 between about 32W-42W. Isolated showers are along and within 90 nm south of the front. Two weak surface troughs are over the NE Atlantic - one from 30N28W to 23N35W and the other from 30N24W to 23N23W. Isolated showers accompany the trough that is farther west. The cold front that is currently just east of Florida, will reach from Bermuda to north central Cuba tonight. It is possible that a weak low pressure center may develop along the front east of the Bahamas on Thursday, and persist into Friday. The low pressure center is expected to move NE of the area on Friday night, with a trough extending south of the low to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Expect fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights of 8 feet, possibly as far as 240 nm to the NW of the low center, as the low center moves NE. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen