000 AXNT20 KNHC 131147 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 647 AM EST Wed Feb 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 00N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05S-00N between 22W-35W. Scattered showers are 00N-02N between 15W-17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from central Florida near 27N82W across the Gulf to S of Mexico near 18N93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends 80 to 90 nm southeast ahead of the cold front from the Yucatan Peninsula across Florida. The tail end of a secondary front extends across the Florida Panhandle into the Gulf near 30N85W. Gale force winds are no longer observed behind the front. However, strong to fresh north winds are indicated behind the front with recent scatterometer data. East of the front, winds are from the SE at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the warm sector over the E Gulf from 21N-30N between 82W-86W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows a line of scattered moderate isolated strong thunderstorms extending 200 nm behind the front covering from the Florida Big Bend to Daytona Beach into Lake Okeechobee. A strong cold front extending from Tampa Florida to the Bay of Campeche will continue moving across the remainder of the basin this morning, then stall and dissipate from Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Strong northerly winds are expected NW of the front today. Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf region Thu through Sat. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is over western Cuba, the Yucatan Straits, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Honduras, and NE Nicaragua. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of Jamaica. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, with highest winds near the coast of Colombia each night. Trade winds will diminish slightly today as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge. The front will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel by afternoon. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the southern Caribbean Thu through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic this morning extending from 31N78W to 29N80W. SCattered moderate to strong convection is depicted 60 to 80 nm ahead of the cold front. Further east, a cold front extends south from a 1000 mb low pressure centered near 36N34W to 28N49W and connects to a warm front near 30N59W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 29N36W to 25N41W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm east of the trough. Another surface trough is W of the Canary Islands from 29N23W to 23N20W depicted by a sharp wind shift. A cold front moving off the northern Florida coast will reach from Bermuda to north-central Cuba tonight. A weak low pressure area may develop along the front east of the Bahamas on Thu, and persist into Fri. The low is expected to move NE of the area Fri night, with a trough extending south of the low to Turks and Caicos. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres