000 AXNT20 KNHC 130557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1257 AM EST Wed Feb 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W to S Mexico near 18N94W. The front is moving quickly SE across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds are within 120 nm NW of front. Gales are expected to prevail through tonight offshore of Veracruz and end by early Wednesday morning. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S30W to near the coast of Brazil 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05S-00N between 22W-40W associated to the proximity of the ITCZ. Isolated moderate convection is present near the monsoon trough 01N-03N between 12W-16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W across the Gulf to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W to S Mexico near 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection extends 210 nm of the Texas coast. Gale force winds are NW of the front. See Special Features section above for more details about the Gale Warning. East of the front, winds are from the S at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the warm sector over the E Gulf from 21N-30N between 82W-86W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows a line of scattered moderate isolated strong convection from the Florida Panhandle to Daytona Beach and into Fort Myers. A strong cold front extending from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche will quickly move across the remainder of the basin overnight, then stall and dissipate from Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed. Gale force winds are still expected tonight in the SW Gulf behind the front with seas building around 11 ft. Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf region Thu through Sat. The next cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf waters on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is over western Cuba, the Yucatan Straits, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Honduras, and NE Nicaragua. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of Jamaica. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence. High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale force at night near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Trade winds will diminish slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge. The front will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel Wed. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the south- central Caribbean Thu through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high in the W Atlantic is centered near 30N62W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 30N37W to 26N42W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm east of the trough. Another surface trough is W of the Canary Islands from 29N23W to 23N20W depicted by a sharp wind shift. High pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds through tonight. Southerly winds will increase east of Florida tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic tonight. The front will reach from near Bermuda to north-central Cuba by Wed night. A weak low pressure could develop along the front E of the Bahamas on Thu, and persist on Fri. Then, the low is forecast to move NE and N of the area by Fri night, dragging the associated cold front across the SE waters on Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres