000 AXNT20 KNHC 122326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 626 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W to S Mexico near 18N95W. The front is moving quickly SE across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds are within 120 nm NW of front. Gales are expected to prevail through tonight offshore of Veracruz and end around 1800 UTC Wed. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W and extends to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S20W to 02S21W to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-07S between 20W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W to S Mexico near 18N95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the Texas coast. Gale force winds are NW of the front. See above. E of front, winds are from the S at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the warm sector over the E Gulf from 22N-30N between 85W-88W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows a line of scattered moderate convection over Florida from Daytona Beach to Lake Okeechobee. The front will quickly move across the basin overnight, then stall and dissipate from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed. Southerly return flow will prevail across the basin Thu and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is over most of Cuba, the Yucatan Straits, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Honduras, and NE Nicaragua. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of Jamaica. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence. High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Trade winds will diminish slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge. The front will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel Wed. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the south central Caribbean Thu through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N65W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N38W to 26N46W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Another surface trough is W of the Canary Islands from 30N24W to 25N21W depicted by a sharp wind shift. High pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds through tonight. Southerly winds will increase east of Florida tonight ahead of a cold front. The front will reach from Bermuda to northern Cuba Wed night, then weaken and dissipate from 27N65W through the central Bahamas by late Thu. Southerly return flow will develop across the region Fri, with winds increasing Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa