000 AXNT20 KNHC 121718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1218 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Gulfport Mississippi to Tampico Mexico. The front is moving quickly SE across the Gulf of Mexico. Gales are forecast to begin by 1800 UTC today in the SW Gulf of Mexico W of the front, south of 25N and W of 93W. Gales are expected to prevail through tonight offshore of Veracruz and end around sunrise Wed. Seas of 8-12 ft are expected in the SW Gulf behind the front through early Wed before gradually subsiding. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W and extends to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S18W to 02S21W to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 27W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from near Gulfport Mississippi to 29N90W to 24N95W to Tampico Mexico and then turns northwestward inland into Mexico to 25N100W. A line of showers and thunderstorms is along the cold front. Additional scattered to numerous moderate convection is behind the cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas and Louisiana. Near gale N winds are occurring behind the front, with gales expected by 1800 UTC S of 25N and W of the front. The cold front will extend from SW Florida to 24N84.5W to the Yucatan Peninsula by tonight. The cold front will dissipate from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Southerly return flow will prevail across the basin on Thursday and Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Troughing at 500 mb is present over the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula. Low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 and the CIRA Layered Precipitable Water product show somewhat increased moisture content in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the Yucatan Channel, mainly N of 20N and W of 84.5W. The remainder of the Caribbean is relatively quiet with only isolated showers seen near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The latest ASCAT pass from around 12/1342 UTC shows that strong trades cover the entire central Caribbean from Hispaniola to the coast of South America W of 69W, with near gales from 11N-14N between 73W-78W. Elsewhere, mainly fresh trades prevail. High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the entire central Caribbean Sea. The trade winds will diminish slightly on Wednesday, as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge. The front will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will be confined to the south central Caribbean Sea from Thursday through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N65W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh southerly winds over the W Atlantic east of Florida as a cold front quickly moves E over the central Gulf of Mexico. Farther east, a dissipating cold front over the eastern Atlantic extends from 31N27W to 27N30W to 25N35W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough extends from 30N23W to 21N21W with no significant convection present. The Atlantic ridge remains in control with fair weather across much of the basin. Fresh southerly winds east of Florida will increase to strong this afternoon, ahead of a cold front that will reach the W Atlantic tonight. Behind the front, strong N winds are expected Wed. The front will reach from Bermuda to northern Cuba on Wednesday night, then weaken and dissipate from 27N65W through the central Bahamas by late Thursday. Southerly return flow will develop across the region on Friday, with the wind speeds increasing on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen