000 AXNT20 KNHC 121148 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 648 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... Cold front over south Texas will enter the NW Gulf early Tue. Strong northerly 30 to 35 kts wind with seas 8 to 10 ft will accompany the front, reaching gale force criteria offshore of Mexico in the afternoon, and the SW Gulf tonight. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Strong trades present across the entire central Caribbean will pulse to gale-force wind at night near the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with seas 9 to 12 ft. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S42W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 20W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high is centered over W Atlantic near 30N61W. A ridge axis extends W from the high along 30N to E Texas limiting any convection across the east and central portion of the basin. A cold front is moving across Texas this morning with a squall line ahead of it entering the NW Gulf of Mexico near 29N-28N along 94W. Radar imagery shows moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms developing with the squall line. Further south along the Texas coast, scattered convection is present across the region. Scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate SE return flow across the basin. A surface trough is near 21N91W to 18N91W along the Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is present with the trough. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this morning. Gale force northerly winds are expected offshore of Tamaulipas and Veracruz this afternoon and tonight. The front will quickly move across the basin overnight, then stall and dissipate from Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed. Southerly return flow will prevail across the basin Thu and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However, isolated low-topped showers continue across of the basin, mainly over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Recent scatterometer imagery shows moderate to fresh east to northeast winds across the southern Caribbean sea. Strong to gale force winds are occurring near northern Colombia coast with Gale Warning in effect. For more details about the Gale Warning, please see the Special Feature section above. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean basin. High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Trade winds will diminish slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge. The front will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel Wed. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the south central Caribbean Thu through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N61W. A cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N29W to 24N44W. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of the front. A surface trough is present near 28N22W to 21N20W with no significant convection present. The Atlantic ridge remains in control favorable for fair weather across much of the basin. High pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds through tonight. Southerly winds will increase east of Florida tonight ahead of a cold front. The front will reach from Bermuda to northern Cuba Wed night, then weaken and dissipate from 27N65W through the central Bahamas by late Thu. Southerly return flow will develop across the region Fri, with winds increasing Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres