000 AXNT20 KNHC 120603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will enter the NW Gulf early Tue. Strong northerly 30 to 40 kts wind with seas up to 8 to 10 ft will accompany the front, reaching gale force criteria offshore of Mexico Tuesday afternoon, and the SW Gulf Tue night. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to gale-force wind at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night, from 11N to 12N between 73W and 75W, with seas 9 to 12 ft. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 00N17W. The ITCZ continues from 00N17W to 02S42W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is from 09S-04N between 20W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N61W. A ridge axis extends W from the high along 30N to E Texas. Recent scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate SE return flow across the basin. Latest surface observations show a mix of low visibility and low level clouds along the Texas coast with some reporting rain. Radar imagery shows scattered shower activity along the Texas coast and near the Florida Keys. A stationary front is inland over SE Texas with scattered moderate convection in the vicinity. The remainder of the Gulf has mostly fair weather. Return SE flow under the 1027 mb high pres will prevail tonight, shifting E by early Tue as a cold front enters the NW Gulf. Gale force northerly winds are expected offshore of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Tue afternoon into Tue night. For more details about the Gale Warning, please see the Special Feature section above. The front will quickly move across the basin Tue and Tue night, stalling and dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed and Wed night. Return flow under high pres returns Thu into Fri, breaking down as the next cold front moves through Fri through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However, isolated low-topped showers continue across of the basin, mainly over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Recent scatterometer imagery shows moderate to fresh east to northeast winds across southern Caribbean sea south of Jamaica and Hispaniola. Strong to gale force winds are occurring near northern Colombia coast with Gale Warning in effect. For more details about the Gale Warning, please see the Special Feature section above. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean basin. High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Trade winds will weaken slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge. The front will stall near the Yucatan Channel early Wed then dissipate. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the south central Caribbean at the end of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N61W. A cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N33W to 26N46W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Isolated showers are noted further east from the front from 24N26N between 25W- 32W. No other significant convection is present over the Atlantic as ridge remains in control over much of the basin. High pres building N of the area will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds through Tue night, with locally strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola. NE swells E of the Bahamas will subside by early Tue. Southerly winds will increase E of Florida Tue night ahead of a cold front moving off the Florida coast. The front will reach from Bermuda to northern Cuba Wed night, then weaken and dissipate from 27N65W through the central Bahamas by late Thu. Return flow under high pres will prevail Fri, with winds increasing Sat ahead of the next cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres