000 AXNT20 KNHC 112321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... High pres will shift E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf early Tue. Strong northerly 25 to 35 kts wind with seas up to 8 ft will accompany the front, reaching gale force criteria offshore of Mexico Tue afternoon, and the SW Gulf Tue night. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night through Tue night across the south-central Caribbean, just off-shore of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with seas to 12 ft. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website for more details at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 01N21W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-03S between 32W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N61W. A ridge axis extends W from the high along 31N to E Texas. The Gulf of Mexico has 10-15 kt SE to S surface return flow. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over S Florida and the SE Gulf. A front is inland over SE Texas with scattered moderate convection. The remainder of the Gulf has mostly fair weather. Return flow under high pressure will prevail tonight, shifting E by early Tue as a cold front enters the NW Gulf. Gale force northerly winds are expected offshore of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Tue afternoon into Tue night. The front will quickly move across the basin Tue and Tue night, stalling and dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed and Wed night. Return flow under high pres returns Thu into Fri, breaking down as the next cold front moves through Fri through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However, isolated low-topped showers continue across of the basin, mainly over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Scatterometer imagery show fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Strong to gale force winds are occurring near northern Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere over the Caribbean basin. High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Trade winds will weaken slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge. The front will stall near the Yucatan Channel early Wed then dissipate. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the south central Caribbean at the end of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N61W. A cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N38W to 26N50W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Farther E, a trough extends from 31N27W to 27N28W to 24N33W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Over the W Atlantic, high pressure building N of the area will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds through Tue night, with locally strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola. Large NE swell east of the Bahamas will subside by early Tue. Southerly winds will increase E of Florida Tue night ahead of a cold front moving off the Florida coast. The front will reach from Bermuda to northern Cuba Wed night, then weaken and dissipate from 27N65W through the central Bahamas by late Thu. Return flow under high pres will prevail Fri, with winds increasing Sat ahead of the next cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa