000 AXNT20 KNHC 111740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1240 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...West Central Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... High pres will shift E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf early Tue. Strong northerly 25 to 35 kts wind with seas up to 8 ft will accompany the front, reaching gale force criteria offshore of Mexico Tue afternoon, and the SW Gulf Tue night. Northerly winds will diminish Wed afternoon as the front pushes SE of the basin. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night through Tue night across the south-central Caribbean, just off-shore of Colombia, from 11N to 14N between 73W and 78W, with seas to 13 ft. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website for more details at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 02S-02N between 10W and 23W and more scattered shower activity elsewhere along the ITCZ near Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends south from a low over E Texas, to the South Texas coastal waters, near 26N96W. Mostly overcast low stratus clouds cover the far western Gulf with areas of fog in the NW Gulf. In some of these areas of light showers, visibilities of 1 to 2 miles are being reported. Gentle to moderate winds are across the basin. A surface trough is also observed along the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N91W to 19N92W. No significant convection is noted with this trough. High pressure will build across the N Gulf today, shifting E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf by Tue morning. Strong N winds behind the cold front will meet minimal gale force criteria offshore of Mexico, Tue afternoon into Tue night. Winds will diminish Wed afternoon as the front pushes SE of the basin. Another cold front will move into the northern Gulf on Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However, isolated low-topped showers continue across much of the basin. Scatterometer passes show fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Strong to gale force winds are occurring near northern Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere over the Caribbean basin. High pres NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night NW of Colombian coastline through Tue night. Trades will weaken slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge. The front will stall near the Yucatan Channel early Wed, then dissipate. Fresh to strong trade winds will be confined to the S central Caribbean through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N39W to 27N50W, and is likely to begin to dissipate within the next 48 hours. Farther E, a trough now replaces the old stationary front, now located at 31N27W to 24N35W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. High pres building N of the area will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds through Wed, with locally strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola through Tue night. NE swell in excess of 8 ft, E of the Bahamas will subside by early Tue. Southerly winds will increase off NE Florida by late Tue ahead of a cold front moving off the Florida coast Tue night. The front will reach from Bermuda to N central Cuba Wed night, dissipating over the SE waters Thu and Thu night. Return flow under high pres will prevail for the end of the week ahead of the next possibly strong cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PJM