000 AXNT20 KNHC 102346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night through Tue night across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with seas to 13 ft. Th next gale is forecast to start on 11/0000 UTC and end on 11/1800 UTC. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 01N30W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01S to 05N between 06W and 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10/2100 UTC, a 1018 mb low is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N86W. A stationary front extends south from the low to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Overcast low stratus clouds cover the far western Gulf west of the front and north of the front off the coasts of Mexico, Texas and western Louisiana. In some of these areas, where light showers are occurring off the coast of Texas, visibilities of 1 to 2 miles are being reported. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf S of 27N and E of 90W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are over the Gulf to east of the western Gulf stationary front. Gentle to moderate winds are to the west of this front. The frontal boundary over the W Gulf of Mexico will weaken tonight. High pressure builds across the northern Gulf coast Mon shifting E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf early Tue. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front Tue into early Wed possibly reaching gale force off Veracruz, Mexico Tue night. Winds will then diminish starting Wed afternoon as the front pushes SE of the basin. High pres and return flow will prevail across the basin Thu and Thu night. Another cold front may move across the basin Fri and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However, isolated low-topped showers continue across much of the basin. Scatterometer passes show fresh to strong northeast winds in the Lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Strong to near gale force winds are occurring near the northern Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere over the Caribbean basin. High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night NW of the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Trades will weaken slightly by mid week as the High weakens due to an approaching cold front from the NW. The front will stall near the Yucatan Channel early Wed before dissipating. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the S central Caribbean for the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N50W to 27N70W to 27N73W, continuing as a stationary front to near Melbourne Florida. Scattered showers are along and within 120 nm N of the stationary front. Isolated showers with overcast low stratus clouds are elsewhere along and N of the cold fronts. Farther E, an occluded low is just N of the area near 33N32W. An associated cold front extends from 31N28W to 27N30W to 24N40W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 29N between 27W and 31W due to enhanced upper-level forcing and moisture from the nearby low pressure system. Over the W Atlantic, a stationary front N of the Bahamas will dissipate tonight. High pressure building N of the area will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds through mid week, with strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola through Tue night. NE swell in excess of 8 ft E of the Bahamas will subside by early Tue. Southerly winds will increase off NE Florida by late Tue ahead of a cold front moving off the Florida coast Tue night. The front will reach from Bermuda to N central Cuba Wed night, dissipating over the SE waters Thu and Thu night. Return flow under high pres will prevail for the end of the week ahead of the next possibly strong cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa