000 AXNT20 KNHC 101720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night through early this week across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, with seas to 13 ft. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 01N to 06N between 06W and 21W and from 02S to 04N between 21W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Sarasota Florida to 27N89W. A warm front extends from 27N89W to a 1020 mb low near 28N96W. A stationary front extends S from the low across the Bay of Campeche to the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. Overcast low stratus clouds cover the far western Gulf west of the front and north of the front off the coasts of Mexico, Texas and western Louisiana. In some of these areas, where light showers are occurring off the coast of Texas, visibilities of 1 to 2 miles are being reported. Showers are also noted north of the front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico between Tampa Bay and Cedar Key Florida. Additional scattered showers are seen in the Florida Straits in between Key West and Havana. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are over the Gulf to east of the western Gulf stationary front. Gentle to moderate winds are to the west of this front. The frontal boundary from west central Florida to the weak low pressure off the central Texas coast will weaken through late today. High pres builds across the northern Gulf coast Mon shifting E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf early Tue. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front Tue into early Wed possibly reaching gale force off Veracruz, Mexico by late Tue. Winds will then diminish starting Wed afternoon as the front pushes SE of the basin. High pres and return flow will prevail across the basin Thu and Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However, isolated low-topped showers continue across much of the basin. Scatterometer passes this morning show fresh to strong northeast winds in the Lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Although the scatterometer missed the coast of Colombia, strong to gale force winds are likely occurring near the northern Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh trade winds are occurring elsewhere over the Caribbean basin. Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through Tue will maintain strong to near gale force tradewinds across the south central Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trades will expand to most of the central and NW basin through Wed morning, including the Windward Passage and waters in lee of Cuba tonight through Sun night. A cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Wed afternoon before dissipating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to 28N68W to 28N76W, continuing as a stationary front to near Melbourne Florida. Scattered showers are along and within 120 nm N of the stationary front. Isolated showers along with overcast low stratus clouds are elsewhere along and N of the stationary and cold fronts. Additional light showers are seen in the Atlantic waters off South Florida and the Florida Keys. Farther E, an occluded low is just N of the area near 33N31W. An associated cold front extends from 31N28W to 27N32W to 25N42W. Scattered showers are occurring along and within 120 nm southeast of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 29N between 27W and 31W due to enhanced upper-level forcing and moisture from the nearby low pressure system. The remainder of the cold front over the western Atlantic will stall along 27N/28N and dissipate through tonight. High pres building N of the area will support fresh E to SE winds through the middle of next week, with strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola. NE swell in excess of 8 ft east of the Bahamas will subside by late Mon. Southerly winds will increase off NE Florida by late Tue ahead of another cold front moving off the Florida coast Tue night. The second front will reach from Bermuda to S Florida by late Wed, then from 29N65W to N central Cuba Thu morning before dissipating across the southern waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto