000 AXNT20 KNHC 101122 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night through early this week across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with seas to 12 ft. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 01N28W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 06W-19W, and from 1S-03N between 20W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Sarasota Florida to 27N88W. A warm front extends from 27N88W to 28N95W to a 1021 mb low near 27N97W. A stationary front extends S from the low across the Bay of Campeche to near Coatzacoalcos Mexico. Overcast low stratus clouds cover the far western Gulf west of the front and north of the front off the coasts of Mexico, Texas and western Louisiana. In some of these areas, where light showers are occurring off the coast of southern Texas, the overcast cloud deck is near the surface, leading to patchy dense fog. Showers are also noted north of the front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico between Tampa Bay and Cedar Key Florida. Additional scattered showers are seen in the Florida Straits in between Key West and Havana. The latest ASCAT pass indicates that winds in the Gulf of Mexico are fresh to strong. The front will slightly lift northward in the central and eastern Gulf while dissipating, with the western Gulf portion lingering through today. High pres builds down from the NE tonight, shifting E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf early Tue. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front Tue into early Wed with gale force winds possibly developing off Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then diminish starting Wed afternoon as the front pushes SE of the basin. High pres and return flow will prevail across the basin Thu and Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However, isolated low-topped showers are seen across much of the basin. An earlier ASCAT pass from late Saturday evening showed strong to locally near gale winds S of Cuba N of 20N between 78W-81W. The scatterometer pass also showed near gales to locally gale winds off the coast of Colombia, where a gale warning is in effect. See section above for details. Fresh trades cover most of the remainder of the basin. Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through Tue will maintain strong to near gale force tradewinds across the S central Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trades will expand to most of the central and NW basin through Wed morning, including the Windward Passage and waters in the lee of Cuba today through tonight. A cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Wed afternoon before dissipating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N59W to 29N68W to 28N76W, continuing as a stationary front to near Melbourne Florida. Scattered showers are along and within 120 nm N of the stationary front. Isolated showers along with overcast low stratus clouds are elsewhere along and N of the stationary and cold fronts. Additional light showers are seen in the Atlantic waters off South Florida and the Florida Keys. Farther E, an occluded low is just N of the area near 33N32W. An associated cold front extends from 31N29W to 27N34W to 25N42W. Scattered showers are occurring along and within 120 nm southeast of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 30N between 27W-32W due to enhanced upper-level diffluence and moisture from the nearby low pressure system. The cold front from 31N59W to 28N76W will continue to move SE and extend from 30N45W to 27N54W on Mon night where it will transition to a dissipating stationary front to just NE of the northern Bahamas. High pres building N of the area will support fresh E to SE winds through the middle of this week, with strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola. NE swell in excess of 8 ft east of the Bahamas will subside by late Mon. Southerly winds will increase off NE Florida by late Tue ahead of another cold front moving off the Florida coast Tue night. The second front will reach from Bermuda to S Florida by late Wed, then from 29N65W to N central Cuba Thu morning before dissipating across the southern waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen