000 AXNT20 KNHC 100012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 711 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Strong NE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas follow a cold front reaching from 31N71W to near Vero Beach, Florida. Strong gusts also accompany the front, as cooler air north of the front flows over the relatively warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. A gale warning is in effect through today for frequent gusts to gale force north of 29N within 60 nm of the coast of northeast Florida. Winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the front moves eastward and weakens. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night during the weekend and early next week across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with seas to 11 ft. The next gale is forecast to start on 10/0000 UTC. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 11W-17W and from 02S-03N between 35W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Ft. Myers, Florida to 26N96W and then extends southward across the Bay of Campeche to near Coatzacoalcos Mexico. A surface trough extends over the NW Gulf from the front near 26N96W 29N93W to 25.5N96W. Dense sea fog was noted west of the trough and the front all the way to coasts of Texas and Mexico north of 20N. Isolated showers were occurring elsewhere in the Gulf along and N of the front. Strong winds west of the front along the Mexican coast will diminish through tonight as the front dissipates. Winds and seas will continue to diminish through early next week as a ridge builds over the northern Gulf coast. The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold front entering the northwest Gulf Mon night. Strong winds will follow the front Tue into Wed, diminishing starting late Wed as the front stalls from the southeast Gulf to Tampico Mexico. The front will dissipate Wed night as it moves northward as warm front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is forecast for the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends across the Virgin Islands southward over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Isolated mostly light showers occurring along and within 120 nm east of the trough. Elsewhere, scattered showers were occurring over western Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the NW Caribbean, and over Central America from Belize to Panama. Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through Tue will maintain strong tradewinds across the S central Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong trades will expand to most of the central and NW basin through Wed morning, including the Windward Passage and waters in lee of Cuba tonight through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N71W to Vero Beach, Florida. Scattered showers were along and N of the front. Dense sea fog was also noted north of the front, especially near the coast of northeastern Florida. A surface high pressure ridge lies over the W Atlantic to the E of the front, anchored by a 1025 mb high near 36N43W. A cold front was over the E Atlantic from 31N31W to 24N50W. Scattered showers were occurring along and within 100 nm southeast of the front. In the far E Atlantic, an upper- level low near 24N21W is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 20N- 27N, east of 19W. The W Atlantic cold front will continue to move eastward and reach from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral overnight, before stalling and then dissipating along 28N on Sun. High pressure building north of the area will support fresh E to SE winds through the middle of next week, with strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola. NE swell in excess of 8 ft east of the Bahamas will subside by late Mon. Southerly winds will increase off of northeastern Florida by late Tue ahead of another cold front moving off the Florida coast Tue night. The second front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ STEWART