239 AXNT20 KNHC 091746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Strong NE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas follow a cold front reaching from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral Florida. Strong gusts also accompany the front, as cooler air north of the front flows over the relatively warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. A gale warning is in effect through today for frequent gusts to gale force north of 29N within 60 nm of the coast of northeast Florida. Winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the front moves eastward and weakens. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night during the weekend and early next week across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 73W and 75W, with seas to 11 ft. The next gale is forecast to start on 10/0000 UTC. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 11W-17W and from 02S-03N between 35W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to 24N95W to the Bay of Campeche near Coatzacoalcos Mexico. The gales in the SW Gulf of Mexico have ended this morning. A surface trough extends over the NW Gulf from 29N93W to 25.5N96W. Scattered showers are along this trough. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the Gulf along and N of the front. Strong winds west of the front along the Mexican coast will diminish through tonight as the front dissipates. Winds and seas will continue to diminish through early next week as a ridge builds over the northern Gulf coast. The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold front entering the northwest Gulf Mon night. Strong winds will follow the front Tue into Wed, diminishing starting late Wed as the front stalls from the southeast Gulf to Tampico Mexico. The front will dissipate Wed night as it moves northward as warm front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is forecast for the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 20N63W to 14N64W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the NW Caribbean, and over Central America from Belize to Panama. Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through Tue will maintain strong tradewinds across the S central Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong trades will expand to most of the central and NW basin through Wed morning, including the Windward Passage and waters in lee of Cuba tonight through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to Melbourne Florida. Scattered showers are along and N of the front. A surface high pressure ridge lies over the W Atlantic to the E of the front, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 35N48W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N35W to 27N40W to 24N51W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm of the front. In the far E Atlantic, an upper-level low near 24N21W is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 20N-27N, east of 19W. The W Atlantic cold front will continue to move east and reach from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral tonight, before stalling then dissipating along 28N through Sun. High pressure building north of the area will support fresh E to SE winds through the middle of next week, with strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola. NE swell in excess of 8 ft east of the Bahamas will subside by late Mon. Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida by late Tue ahead of another cold front moving off the Florida coast Tue night. The second front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA