000 AXNT20 KNHC 091121 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 AM EST Sat Feb 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... As of 0900 UTC, a stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Sarasota Florida to a 1020 mb low near 22N96W to 18N94W. Gale force winds and seas 11-14 ft are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico S of 21N and W of the front. These conditions will continue through 1200 UTC this morning. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night during the weekend and early next week across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 11W-17W and from 02S-03N between 35W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Sarasota Florida to a 1020 mb low near 22N96W to 18N94W. The gales in the SW Gulf of Mexico are forecast to end around 1200 UTC this morning. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends from the low northward to 27N96.5W. Scattered showers are along this trough. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the Gulf along and N of the front. Strong winds south of 25N west of the weakening front will persist through this evening. The remnants of the front will then linger as a trough in the western Gulf through Sun morning. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will develop across most of basin Mon ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Tue morning. Fresh to near gale force winds will follow this second front forecast to move out of the basin Wed morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends from an upper-level low near 20N62W to Hispaniola. A surface trough extends from 22N61W to 18N62.5W to 13N63W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the adjacent waters of the northeast Caribbean. Isolated showers are seen N of 18N between 74W-83W Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through Tue will maintain strong tradewinds across the S central Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong trades will expand to most of the central and NW basin today through Wed morning, including the Windward Passage and waters in the lee of Cuba tonight through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N77.5W and extends SW to Cape Canaveral Florida to Sarasota Florida. Isolated showers are seen along the front. A surface high pressure ridge lies over the W Atlantic to the E of the front, anchored by a 1025 mb high near 31N65W. To the east, a cold front passes through 31N38W to 27N45W to 26N52W, then continues as a weakening stationary front from 26N52W to 24N61W. Scattered showers are seen near the front. A surface trough extends from 22N61W to 18N62.5W to 13N63W. An upper level trough axis extends from 31N39W to an upper-level low near 19N62W to Hispaniola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 17N-23N between 55W-64W. Scattered showers are over and north of Puerto Rico. In the far E Atlantic, an upper-level low near 24N21W is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 20N-27N, east of 19W. The cold front that extends from 31N77.5W to Cape Canaveral Florida will reach from 30N65W SW to Melbourne, Florida tonight and become stationary Sun afternoon along 27N to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Strong high pressure will build across the western Atlantic behind the front, producing a large area of strong to near gale force NE to E winds and high seas over the waters N and NE of the Bahamas today through Sun night. Winds and seas will slowly subside Sun night through Mon as the front drifts S and dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen