721 AXNT20 KNHC 081752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1252 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front is cutting through the Gulf of Mexico, along a NE- to-SW oriented line, from Apalachicola, FL to Tuxpan in Mexico. Expect gale-force winds from 24.5N southward from the cold front westward. The sea heights will be reaching 9 feet. The position of the cold front tonight, on Friday night, will be along the line from 29N82.5W to 25N90W to 24N96W to 18N95W. Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds S OF 20.5N W of the front, with sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet. The wind speeds will slow down, to less than gale-force, by Saturday morning. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force, each night, during the weekend, and into early next week, across the south central Caribbean Sea, just off the coast of Colombia, generally from 10N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W, to the Equator along 28W/29W, to 01S38W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from the Equator to 01S between 42W and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from the Equator along 17W, to 02N21W, to 01N29W, to 01S39W, to 01S41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is cutting through the Gulf of Mexico, along a NE- to-SW oriented line, from Apalachicola, FL to Tuxpan in Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that runs from 30N83W to 26N90W to 23N95W to 19N96W, and elsewhere from 24N southward from 90W westward. The cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near the Chivela Pass in southern Mexico this afternoon, and then stall from Sarasota, FL to 25N96W, to the central Bay of Campeche on Saturday morning. Gale-force winds are expected south of 24N west of the front through early Saturday. Remnants of the front will linger as a trough in the western Gulf of Mexico along 95W/96W during this weekend. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop across most of basin on Monday, before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is passing through 19N64W, just outside the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 15N70W, to the east central coastal sections of Nicaragua. The GFE model forecasts the trough to be stationary for much of the next 24 hours. It is possible that the trough may shift northward a bit, and reach the area of the Gulf of Honduras, before weakening and dissipating by Saturday night. Rainshowers are possible in most areas, in scattered to broken low level clouds, except for the areas that are from 13N southward from 76W eastward. Strong surface high pressure, building across the western Atlantic Ocean through the weekend, will induce strong trade winds across the S central Caribbean Sea. The winds will pulse to minimal gale force near the cost of Colombia each night through Tuesday night. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand to most of the basin, from Saturday through early Monday, and include the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N43W, to 27N50W, to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 25N59W. A surface trough extends from the 1017 mb low pressure center to 17N62W in the NE Caribbean Sea islands, near Antigua and Barbuda. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 18N to 26N between 54W and 62W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N northward between 30W and 56W. A cold front will enter the NW waters tonight, and reach from 31N62W to Cape Canaveral Florida by Saturday evening. The front will become nearly stationary E to W along 26N by Sunday evening. Strong high pressure will build across the western Atlantic Ocean behind the front, producing a large area of strong NE to E winds and high seas in the waters N and NE of the Bahamas from Saturday through early Sunday. The winds and the seas will subside slowly from Sunday through Monday, as the front drifts S and dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT