000 AXNT20 KNHC 080525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends across the Gulf from 30N90W to 25N98W. Frequent gusts to gale force are occurring west of the front, and a 08/0238 UTC ASCAT pass suggests that a small area of gale force winds has developed from 26N-28N between 94W-96W. By this afternoon, the front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. Expect for gale force winds to develop from 22N to 25N west of the front later this morning. Gale force winds will develop S of 22N and W of 95W by early this evening. Sea heights will range from 9 to 13 ft late this afternoon through tonight in the SW Gulf S of 25N and W of 96W, and from 8 to 10 ft elsewhere. These conditions will gradually subside on Sat. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale force winds are forecast to pulse each night through the weekend and into early next week across the south central Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is currently in effect for the western Gulf behind a cold front, which extends from 30N90W to 25N98W as of 0300 UTC. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered light showers are seen along and behind the cold front over the NW Gulf, with isolated thunderstorms developing inland over NE Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Bay of Campeche with no convection noted. The western Atlantic subtropical ridge extends into the NE Gulf, but this ridge will soon be retreating as the cold front approaches. The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near the Chivela Pass, Mexico this afternoon, then will stall and become diffuse tonight into early Sat. Remnants of the front will linger in the western Gulf as a trough through Sun night with return flow prevailing again through Mon night. The next cold front may move into the NW Gulf Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia. Refer to the section above for details. A sharp upper-level trough axis extends from the Atlantic near 31N51W, to an upper-level low near 23N60W, across the Dominican Republic, to the NE coast of Honduras. The trough is forecast to continue in the same place through the next 24 hours. Isolated showers are noted across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Weak high pressure over the W Atlantic will be replaced by stronger high pressure building across the western Atlantic later today into the weekend. This pattern will induce strong tradewinds across the S central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force off of Colombia each night through Tue night. The fresh to strong trades will expand in coverage later today through early Mon to include the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba, then begin to diminish late Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails across the west Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 32N71W. A 1018 mb surface low is near 29N59W. A surface trough extends from this low to the SE Bahamas. Isolated showers are noted near the low and trough. East of that, a cold front enters the area near 31N48W to 25N56W to a 1018 mb low near 24N60W. A weakening stationary front extends SW from the low to 23N65W to 20N69W. A sharp upper-level trough axis is practically aligned with the surface front, and extends from near 31N51W, to an upper-level low near 23N60W, to the Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 20N-26N between 55W- 60W, and N of 29N within 30 nm behind and 90 nm ahead of the cold front. The dissipating stationary front from 23N65W to 20N69W along with a trailing trough from 25N65W to the SE Bahamas will both dissipate through today. A cold front will move over the NW waters tonight, then reach from near 31N67W to 29N76W and become stationary to near Cape Canaveral by early on Sat. Very strong high pres will build across the western Atlantic behind this front producing strong NE winds and high seas over the waters N and NE of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. Seas will be highest Sat night from 28N-30N between 75W-80W, peaking around 10-13 ft over a portion of the area. Winds and high seas will begin to slowly subside beginning on Sun afternoon as the front dissipates. Return flow under high pres will prevail early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen