000 AXNT20 KNHC 072346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will reach the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, tonight. Expect frequent gusts to gale-force within 60 nm of the coast. By Fri morning, the cold front will extend from the Florida Panhandle, through the N central Gulf of Mexico, then to the Bay of Campeche. Expect for gale-force winds to develop from 22N to 24N and west of the front on Fri afternoon, with sea heights will range from 9 ft to 12 ft W of 97W, and from 8 ft to 10 ft elsewhere. These conditions will subside on Sat. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds are forecast to pulse each night across the south central Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W. These conditions will continue through the weekend. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to the coast of Brazil near 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is currently in effect for the NW Gulf. Refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge extends across the basin with fair weather. A cold front is approaching the coast of Texas and will enter the Gulf waters this evening. Return flow due to the high pressure to the E will shift NE as a cold front approaches. The cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters this evening, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to near the Chivela Pass, Mexico Fri afternoon, then will stall and become diffuse Fri night into early Sat. Remnants of the front in the western Gulf will linger as a trough through Sun night with return flow prevailing again through Mon night. The next cold front may move into the NW Gulf Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends from an Atlantic, across Puerto Rico, to 16N71W in the Caribbean, then towards Nicaragua/Honduras border. The trough is forecast to continue in the same place through the next 48 hours. Showers are noted across the Greater Antilles and adjacent waters. Surface high pressure in the W Atlantic will be replaced by stronger high pressure building across the western Atlantic, from Fri through late Sun. This pattern will induce the strong trade winds across the S central Caribbean. Expect the winds to pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each night through Mon night. The strong trade winds will expand in coverage, from Fri through early Mon, in order to include the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba, and then begin to diminish late on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails across the west Atlantic, centered near 32N70W. To the E, a 1018 mb surface low is centered near 23N71W. A surface trough connects this low to a 1019 mb low centered near 30N59W. A cold front is analyzed E of these features from 32N49W to 25N58W, then becomes weak and stationary through 20N69W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm on either side of the cold front. A surface trough extends over the E Atlantic 30N30W to 20N31W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate through Friday night. The next cold front will move through the far NW waters on Friday night, reach from near 31N67W to 29N76W and become stationary to near Cape Canaveral by early on Sat. Very strong high pressure will build across the west Atlantic behind this front, producing strong NE winds and high seas in the waters that are to the north and northeast of the Bahamas on Sat. The winds and the high seas will begin to subside slowly, beginning on Sun afternoon, as the front dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA