000 AXNT20 KNHC 071803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will reach the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, tonight. Expect frequent gusts to gale-force within 60 nm of the coast. The cold front, on Friday morning, will pass through the Florida Panhandle, into the N central Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect gale-force winds, from 22N to 24N to the west of the cold front. The gale-force winds will be starting on Friday morning, and slow down and become less than gale-force on Friday night. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to 12 feet to the W of 97W, and from 8 feet to 10 feet elsewhere. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds are forecast for the south central Caribbean Sea, in the waters that are off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, on Thursday night/Friday morning, and on Friday night/Saturday morning. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to the Equator along 45W, to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 02N to 04N between 02W and 07W, and from 04N to 06N between 10W and 13W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N southward from 13W eastward, and from 03N southward between 14W and 38W. Rainshowers are possible from 01N southward between 45W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes 30N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, across N Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is moving through central and southern sections of Texas at this time. Surface high pressure, that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean into the N Central Gulf of Mexico, will maintain southerly return flow in the Gulf of Mexico through this afternoon. A cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters this evening, move SE and reach from near Destin, Florida to 26N90W to 24N96W and stationary to near 21N97W early on Friday. The front will weaken as it reaches from near Tampa, Florida to 26N90W and stationary to 24N96W to 19N96W by Friday evening. The front will weaken more, and it will become diffuse by late Saturday night. Strong high pressure, that is building behind the cold front, will produce gale force winds across the offshore waters of Mexico in the W central Gulf and in the SW Gulf of Mexico, from Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Strong to near gale force winds, with gusts to gale force, are expected elsewhere in the western Gulf waters from tonight into early Friday. High pressure will shift eastward, into the central Atlantic Ocean next week, and return flow will return to most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 24N61W cyclonic circulation center, across Puerto Rico, to 16N71W in the Caribbean Sea, toward central Nicaragua. The trough is forecast by the GFE model to continue in more or less the same place, for the next 48 hours or so. Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the southern coast of Puerto Rico, to 15N75W, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near 80W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.76 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.06 in Guadeloupe, 0.02 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and 0.01 in Curacao. Weak surface high pressure in the W Atlantic Ocean will be replaced by stronger high pressure building across the western Atlantic Ocean, from Friday through late Sunday night. This pattern will induce strong trade winds across the S central Caribbean Sea. Expect the winds to pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each night through Monday night. The strong trade winds will expand in coverage, from Friday through early Monday, in order to include the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba, and then begin to diminish late on Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N50W, to 28N54W, to a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 25N59W. A dissipating stationary front extends from the 1018 mb low pressure center, to 23N66W, and to the coast of the Dominican Republic near 19N69.5W. A surface trough is to the east of the dissipating frontal boundary, along 23N61W 21N63W 19N65W. A second boundary moved into the Atlantic Ocean, to the NW of the 32N50W- to-Dominican Republic frontal boundary. A surface trough extends from a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W, to 26N64W, to 24N70W, to the SE Bahamas near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to 240 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N48W to 28N51W to 22N57W, and from 15N to 20N between 53W and 62W. Rainshowers are possible, also, elsewhere, from 20N northward between 60W and 75W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.05 in Bermuda. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N32W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between Africa and 43W. A surface trough is along 25N31W 22N32W. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 18N to 28N between 26W and 36W. The current dissipating stationary front, that runs from near 23N65W to the NE coast of the Dominican Republic, will weaken and dissipate through Friday night. The next cold front will move through the far NW waters on Friday night, reach from near 31N67W to 29N76W and become stationary to near Cape Canaveral by early on Saturday. Very strong high pressure will build across the western Atlantic Ocean behind this front, producing strong NE winds and high seas in the waters that are to the north and northeast of the Bahamas on Saturday and Saturday night. The winds and the high seas will begin to subside slowly, beginning on Sunday afternoon, as the front dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT