000 AXNT20 KNHC 070001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters Thu evening and reach from the Florida Big Bend to near the Chivela Pass Mexico Fri evening. Gale force winds are possible offshore of Mexico in the W central and SW Gulf Fri afternoon into early Sat. Forecast indicates NW to N winds 25 to 35 kts with seas 8 to 11 feet. High pres will again be centered NE of the area early next week allowing for a NE return flow. The front will stall and become diffuse across the central and eastern Gulf this weekend. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pres will build over the western Atlantic Thu through the weekend, resulting in a tight pres gradient across the basin and strong tradewinds across the S central Caribbean pulsing to gale force off of Colombia each night through Mon night. Gale-force winds are expected to pulse every night through the weekend along the coast of N Colombia S of 12N between 74W and 73W with seas 9 to 12 ft. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of northern Liberia near 10N14W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 04S-01N between 24W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb surface high is centered over the west Atlantic along 33N76W. With this, surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the whole area. High pres NE of the area will maintain southerly return flow over the basin through Thu afternoon. A cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters Thu evening, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to near the Chivela Pass Mexico Fri evening, stalling and becoming diffuse across the central and eastern Gulf this weekend. Gale force winds are possible offshore of Mexico in the W central and SW Gulf Fri afternoon into early Sat. See Special Features above for more details on the Gale Warning. High pres will again be centered NE of the area early next week allowing for return flow to return. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale warning Special Fis in effect along the coast of N Colombia. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the eastern half of the basin while moderate to fresh NE winds prevail W of 70W. Scattered showers are noted over Hispaniola and northern Puerto Rico due to the proximity of a frontal boundary from the N and a surface trough extending from 20N64W to 14N66W. Strong subsidence covers the remainder of the basin. Weak high pres along the NE coast of Florida will promote fresh to strong tradewinds over the S central Caribbean through tonight. High pres will build over the western Atlantic Thu through the weekend, resulting in a tight pres gradient across the basin and strong tradewinds across the S central Caribbean pulsing to gale force off of Colombia each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds will expand in coverage Fri through the weekend to include the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb surface high is centered near 33N76W. To the E, surface trough extends to 29N62W from a 1008 mb low centered near 42N50W. A weakening cold front is analyzed from 31N55W to 22N67W, then becomes stationary to 19N70W. Scattered showers are noted E of the cold front mainly N of 21N between 50W-60W. A 1031 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N32W. No significant convection is observed with the trough at this time. A stationary front extending from 24N65W to the NE coast of Hispaniola will drift E through Thu as high pres builds across the W Atlc. The next cold front will move over the far NW waters Fri night then reach from near 31N67W to 28N76W and become stationary to near Cape Canaveral on Sat. Very strong high pres behind this front will lead to strong NE to E winds along with building seas, likely to peak to around 13 ft, over the waters N and NE of the Bahamas late on Sat. Winds and seas N through NE of the Bahamas will slowly subside on Sun as the front dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres