000 AXNT20 KNHC 061731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Gale-force winds are expected to pulse every night through the weekend along the coast of N Colombia S of 12N between 74W and 76W with seas 9 to 12 ft. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of northern Liberia near 07N11W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 02N-04N between 18W-21W, and from 03S-08S between 31W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb surface high is centered over the west Atlantic along 30N. With this, surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the whole area. High pressure will continue moving east over the western Atlantic by Thu as the next cold front moves across eastern Texas. This front will move over the NW Gulf Thu night, quickly reach from Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening, then weaken as it reaches from Sarasota, Florida to near 26N90W and becomes stationary to the SW Gulf Sat. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front, with the resultant tight pressure gradient bringing strong to near gale force northerly winds over the W central and SW Gulf Fri into early on Sat. Winds diminish and seas subside over the western and central Gulf by Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale warning is in effect along the coast of N Colombia. Refer to the section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the eastern half of the basin while moderate to fresh NE winds prevail W of 70W. Scattered showers are noted over Hispaniola and northern Puerto Rico due to the proximity of a frontal boundary from the N. Strong subsidence covers the remainder of the basin. As low pressure over Colombia deepens over the next few days, and as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic, the resultant tightening of the pressure gradient will allow for gale force winds to pulse each night through the weekend. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the basin through Thu night, increasing to fresh to strong and expanding in coverage beginning on Fri to include the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba as well. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb surface high is centered near 30N80W. To the E, a surface trough extends to 28N69W from a 1011 mb low centered near 34N62W. A weakening cold front is analyzed from 31N57W to 23N67W, then becomes stationary to 20N70W. Scattered showers are noted E of the cold front mainly N of 24N between 50W-60W. A 1033 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N35W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic just reaching 31N32W. Further E, a surface trough is present from 28N27W to 17N23W. No significant convection is observed with this trough at this time. Over the W-central Atlantic, the front will drift E of 65W through the end of the week while high pressure builds from the N. The next cold front will move over the far NW waters on Fri night, reaching from near 31N67W to 28N76W, then becoming stationary to inland Florida near Cape Canaveral on Sat. High pressure behind this front will lead to strong NE to E winds along with building seas, possibly peaking to around 12 ft, over the waters N and NE of the Bahamas late on Sat. Seas north and northeast of the Bahamas will slowly subside on Sun as the front dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA