333 AXNT20 KNHC 061144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Gale force winds are presently along the coast of N Colombia S of 12N between 74W and 76W with seas 9 to 12 ft. This gale is forecast to end shortly on 06/1200 UTC. The Gale is to resume on 07/0000 UTC as the surface pressure gradient tightens again. This process is expected to repeat itself each subsequent late evening and night through Sun night. Northeast winds are again forecast to range between 25 to 35 kts with seas around 9 to 12. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of northern Liberia near 07N11W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 02N-04N between 18W-21W, and from 03S-08S between 31W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is centered over N Florida near 29N81W. 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over the NW Gulf. The entire Gulf is void of convection. Patchy fog is along the N Gulf from S Texas to the Florida Panhandle. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 95W. Upper level moisture and broken high clouds are over the NW Gulf. the remainder of the Gulf has strong subsidence. High pressure centered over northern Florida will shift eastward over the western Atlc by Thu as a strong cold front moves across eastern Texas. This front will move over the NW Gulf Thu night, quickly reach from Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening, then weaken as it reaches from Sarasota, Florida to near 26N90W and becomes stationary to the SW Gulf Sat. Very strong high pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front, with the resultant tight pressure gradient bringing strong to near gale force northerly winds over the W central and SW Gulf Fri into early on Sat. Winds diminish and seas subside mainly over the western and central Gulf Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 20N65W to 15N67W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A gale is along the coast of N Colombia. See above. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia, and weakest winds just S of Hispaniola. Patches of scattered showers are N of Puerto Rico, over Hispaniola, S of Jamaica, and inland over Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. In the upper levels, the base of a trough is over Cuba, while a ridge is over the E Caribbean with axis along 65W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea. Seas north and northeast of the Bahamas will slowly subside on Sun as the front dissipates. As low pressure over Colombia deepens over the next few days, and as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic, the resultant tightening of the pressure gradient will allow for gale force winds to pulse each night through Sun. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the basin through Thu night, increasing to fresh to strong and expanding in coverage beginning on Fri to include the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba as well. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N58W to 23N66W. A stationary front continues to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the front N of 24N between 54W-62W. The convection is being enhanced by strong upper-level diffluence to the SE of a large upper-level low centered near 34N63W. A 1032 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 37N37W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic just reaching 31N32W. Further southeast, a surface trough is present from 28N24W to 23N23W to 20N19W. No significant convection is observed within the surface trough at this time. Over the W Atlantic the front will manage to drift E of 65W through the end of the week while high pres builds down from the N. The next cold front will move over the far NW waters on Fri night then reach from near 31N67W to 28N76W and become stationary to inland Florida near Cape Canaveral on Sat. Very strong high pres behind this front will lead to strong NE to E winds along with building seas, possibly peaking to around 13 ft, over the waters N and NE of the Bahamas late on Sat. Seas north and northeast of the Bahamas will slowly subside on Sun as the front dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa