000 AXNT20 KNHC 051727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 01S24W to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06S-00N between 23W-30W. Isolated showers are from 00N-02N between 16W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough axis extends over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N87W to 19N90W. A 1020 mb surface high is centered over northern Florida near the Big Bend, with lower surface pressure over Texas. Gentle to moderate SE winds cover the Gulf. Total precipitable water imagery indicates a relatively moist environment. Due to the moisture and upper-level trough in the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the north-central Gulf N of 25N from 85W-92W. High pressure centered over N Florida will shift eastward over the western Atlc by Thu as a strong cold front moves across eastern Texas. This front will move over the NW Gulf Thu night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening then weaken as it reaches from Sarasota to near 26N90W and becomes stationary to the SW Gulf. Very strong high pressure in the wake of the front will lead to strong to near gale force north to northeast winds over the waters northwest of the front Fri through Sat. Gale force northwest to north winds are possible over the far western and SW Gulf waters Fri and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends over the Virgin Islands and E Caribbean from 19N63W to 13N64W accompanied by only a few light showers. Water vapor imagery shows dry air covers the Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh trade winds cover most of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds over the S central Caribbean will briefly pulse to near gale force at night near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. High pres will build across the SW N Atlc late Thu through the weekend to induce minimal gale force winds along Colombia each night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the basin through Thu night, increasing to fresh to strong speeds and expanding in coverage beginning on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection is E of the front N of 24N between 54W-66W. The convection is being enhanced by strong upper-level diffluence to the SE of a large upper-level low centered near 34N66W. A 1033 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 37N41W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N36W to 30N39W. An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 30W-45W producing scattered moderate convection from 27N-32N between 32W-40W. The cold front over the W Atlantic will become stationary from near 24N65W to the northern coast of Hispaniola by Wed morning and dissipate Thu. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front. The next cold front will move over the far NW waters on Fri night then reach from near 31N67W to 28N76W and become stationary to near Cape Canaveral Florida on Sat. Very strong high pressure behind this front will lead to strong northeast to east winds along with building seas over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas late on Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen