000
AXNT20 KNHC 050519
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 AM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N14W. The ITCZ continues from 01N14W 
to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 03S-00N between 18W-23W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over N Florida near 31N83W. 5-10 kt SE
to S surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery
shows patches of low stratus clouds and fog along the coast of
Mexico W of 96W, and over the N Gulf N of 27N. In the upper
levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with strong subsidence over
the southern Gulf.  

The surface high centered over N Florida will shift E over the 
western Atlantic by Thu and allow a strong cold front to enter the
NW Gulf Thu night. The front will shift E to extend from northern
Florida to near Veracruz Mexico Fri evening. Gale force NW to N 
winds are possible over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri 
and Fri night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N75W. 10-25 kt 
trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along 
the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of broken low clouds with 
scattered showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Honduras. In 
the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Sea with axis along 
70W. Very strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds over the S central Caribbean will pulse to 
near gale force at night near the Coast of Colombia through Wed 
night, then may reach minimal gale force Thu, Fri and Sat nights. 
Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail 
over the basin through Thu night, increasing to between fresh and 
strong Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to the S Bahamas
near 22N72W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the front N of
25N between 57W-66W. A 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
29N36W. 

The W Atlantic cold front will stall from near 20N72W to 24N65W 
by Wed morning, then dissipate Thu. High pressure will build over
the waters N of the Bahamas in the wake of the front. The next 
cold front will move over the far NW waters Fri night and 
introduce strong NE winds to the waters N of the Bahamas by Sat 
night. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa