000 AXNT20 KNHC 050000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Mon Feb 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 00N18W. The ITCZ continues from 00N18W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered moderate convection is 300 nm north of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate southeasterly flow covers the Gulf of Mexico in between weak surface low pressure over Mexico and a 1019 mb high over southern Georgia. The southerly flow has been drawing moist air northward from the tropics. This is leading to scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Gulf, mainly north of 28N between 85W-92W. Isolated showers are elsewhere over the Gulf N of 24N. Low stratus and patchy areas of dense sea fog cover portions of the coastal Gulf of Mexico waters near Texas and Louisiana. The 1019 mb high pressure across the area will shift E by midweek and allow a strong cold front to enter the NW Gulf Thu night. The front will shift E to extend from northern Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Gale force NW to N winds are possible over the W central and SW Gulf on Fri and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery shows that anomalously dry air covers the Caribbean Sea. At the mid and upper levels, a ridge prevails over the basin. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. ASCAT shows gentle to moderate trade winds over the eastern and northern Caribbean, with fresh winds S of 15N in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to locally near gale winds exist near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds over the S central Caribbean will pulse to near gale force at night near the Coast of Colombia through Wed night, and may reach minimal gale force Thu, Fri and Sat nights. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail through Thu night, increasing to fresh to strong Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low stratus clouds and patchy dense sea fog is decreasing in areal coverage but still exists in the W Atlantic near the coast of northern Florida. A 1008 mb low pressure system centered northeast of the area near 33N73W is producing gale force winds E of its center as far south as 31N, between 67W-72W. An occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 32N69W. A cold front extends from the triple point to the central Bahamas near 23N73W. A warm front extends from the triple point to 31N64W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N between 59W-67W. A surface trough is analyzed towards the east from 26N54W to the Windward Islands near 14N60W. No significant convection is associated with the surface trough. However, an upper-level trough along 50W from 25N-27N is enhancing scattered moderate convection 23N-30N between 47W-51W, due to upper-level divergence east of the upper trough. A surface trough is near 27N42W to 24N43W. No significant convection is in the vicinity of the trough. A cold front from near 31N69W to the SE Bahamas near 23N74W will stall from near 20N72W to 24N65W by Wed morning, then dissipate Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front will move over the far NW waters Fri night and introduce strong NE winds to the waters N of the Bahamas by Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres