000 AXNT20 KNHC 041722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1222 PM EST Mon Feb 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N12W to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W to 01S24W to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 08W- 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate southerly flow covers the Gulf of Mexico in between weak surface low pressure over Mexico and a 1019 mb high over southern Georgia. The southerly flow has been drawing moist air northward from the tropics. This is leading to scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Gulf, mainly north of 27N between 86W-92W. Isolated showers are elsewhere over the Gulf N of 24N. Low stratus and patchy areas of dense sea fog cover portions of the coastal Gulf of Mexico waters near Texas and Louisiana. High pressure across the area will shift eastward midweek enabling a cold front to enter the NW Gulf Thu night. The front will shift eastward to extend from northern Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Gale force northwest to north winds are possible in the W central and SW Gulf on Fri and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery shows that anomalously dry air covers the Caribbean Sea. At the mid and upper levels, a high pressure ridge prevails over the basin. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. ASCAT shows moderate trade winds over the eastern and northern Caribbean, with fresh winds S of 15N in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to locally near gale winds exist near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds in the S central Caribbean will pulse to near gale force at night near the Coast of Colombia through Wed night, and may reach minimal gale force Thu night and Fri night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail through Thu night, increasing to fresh to strong Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low stratus clouds and patchy dense sea fog is decreasing in areal coverage but still exists in the W Atlantic near the coast of northern Florida. A 1008 mb low pressure system centered north of the area near 33N75W is producing gale force winds SE of its center as far south as 32N, between 68W-72W. An occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 32N70W. A cold front extends from the triple point to the central Bahamas near 23N75W. A warm front extends from the triple point to 30N66W. Near gales extend southward along the cold front to 31N, and strong winds are near and east of the cold front from 29N-31N. Scattered moderate convection is N of 26N between 60W-70W. A surface trough is analyzed from 26N54W to 20N58W to Barbados. No significant convection is associated with the surface trough S of 24N. However, an upper-level trough along 52W from 24N-32N is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 25N-30N between 48W-52W, due to upper-level divergence east of the upper trough. A dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N39W to 27N44W with some showers to the east of this feature. The cold front from near 32N70W to the central Bahamas will move E across the remainder of the forecast waters. The strong to near gale force winds along and just E of the front north of 29N will diminish as they shift ENE of the forecast waters tonight. The front will then stall and dissipate across the southeastern waters Wed and Thu. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. The next cold front is expected to move over the far northwest waters on Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen