000 AXNT20 KNHC 041101 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 601 AM EST Mon Feb 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: the website: www.meteofrance.com/ previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. Near gale-force winds are forecast for the areas called: AGADIR and CANARIAS ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N10W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 04S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N-06N between 06W-15W. Isolated moderate convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 03S-02N between 30W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered over N Georgia near 34N83W. A surface ridge axis extends S from the high to the SE Gulf of Mexico. Overcast low clouds and dense fog are over Florida and the E Gulf of Mexico N of 24.5N, and E of 86W. Overcast multilayered clouds are over the N Gulf N of 25N, and W of 86W. Scattered showers are noted on radar along the Louisiana coast. Patches of dense fog are also along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. High pressure across the area will gradually shift eastward through Tue night and extend from the western Atlantic southwestward to the eastern and central Gulf waters by Wed. The combination of the high pressure and low pressure west of the area will result in increasing southerly flow over much of the Gulf beginning late Tue night. The southerly flow will diminish on Thu as a strong cold front moves across eastern Texas. The front will enter the NW Gulf Thu night, reach from near Pensacola Florida to 26N93W and to near Tampico Mexico by early Fri afternoon and from near Cross City Florida to near 25N90W and to near Veracruz Mexico by early Fri night. Gale force northwest to north winds are possible in the W central and SW Gulf on Fri and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N74W. 10-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of broken low clouds with scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Honduras. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Sea with axis along 70W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast to east trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to near gale force at night near the Coast of Colombia through Wed night. These trades may reach minimal gale force Thu night and again on Fri night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh northeast to east trades will continue across the area through Thu night, but increase to fresh to strong speeds in most sections beginning on Fri as high pressure over the western Atlantic strengthens some. Northeast winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds in the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba late on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low status clouds and dense sea fog is over the W Atlantic, N of Cocoa Beach to Georgia, W of 80W. A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N72W to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the cold front N of 27N between 64W- 72W. A dissipating stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N41W to 27N45W to 28N64W. Of note in the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 22N between 50W-58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-30N between 50W-55W. Over the W Atlantic, strong to near gale force southeast to south winds are east of the W Atlantic cold front. The front will move across to 65W through Tue, with the portion north of about 25N exiting the area on Tue night. The strong to near gale force winds east of the front will diminish as they shift east-northeast of the forecast waters late tonight. By Wed, the portion of the front south of 25N will transition to a weakening stationary front across the southeastern waters. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front and begin to strengthen some on Fri. The next cold front is expected to move over the far northwest waters on Fri night followed by very strong high pressure. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa