000 AXNT20 KNHC 031127 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 AM EST Sun Feb 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through N Liberia near 07N11W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues westward from that point to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04S-02N between 26W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb low pressure system was centered over the north central Gulf near 28N88W. A stationary front extends southwestward from the low to 24N90W, and eastward from the low to near Tampa Florida at 28N83W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 28N and E of 87W. Dense fog is presently along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Patchy fog is over the remainder of the north Gulf coast. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence over the S Gulf S of 24N. Weak low pres over the NE Gulf accompanied by weak frontal boundaries will dissipate by early this afternoon. The combination of high pressure building south-southwest across the area with shift NE of the area Sun. An associated cold front will shift across the forecast waters through midweek. High pres will build in the wake of the front through the end of the week. low pressure west of the area will result in increasing southerly flow over the western Gulf beginning Tue night. Winds will diminish late Thu as a cold front moves across eastern Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N74W. 10-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of broken low clouds with scattered showers are over the E Caribbean E of 74W. Similar showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, Jamaica, the NW Caribbean, and E Honduras. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Sea with axis along 70W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will continue across the forecast waters through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb low was located just east of Florida near 30N79W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. Presently dense fog is along the Florida coast near Jacksonville. A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N67W. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N47W to 28N57W to 24N70W to the N Bahamas near 24N77W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-32N between 45W-52W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the front. Over the W Atlantic, the low E of Florida near 30N79W will track northeastward away from the area this afternoon. The low will push a cold front across the forecast waters through early Tue night. By late Tue night, the southern portion of the front will extend into the far southeastern waters of the area as a weakening trough. High pressure will build in the wake of the front through Thu night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa