000 AXNT20 KNHC 030509 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1209 AM EST Sun Feb 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N11W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues westward from that point to 01S35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S-01N between 08W-14W, from 00N-03N between 23W-32W, and from 04S-03N between 33W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb low pressure system was centered over the north central Gulf near 27N89W. A stationary front extends southwestward from the low to 25N95W, and eastward from the low to near Tampa Florida at 28N83W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 28N and E of 87W. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 24N93W to 21N94W. No significant precipitation is noted. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence over the S Gulf S of 24N. Weak low pressure over the north central and north east Gulf accompanied by weak frontal boundaries will dissipate by early Sun. High pressure will then build and prevail across the area through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1006 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. 10-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of broken low clouds with scattered showers are over the E Caribbean E of 74W. Similar showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, Jamaica, the NW Caribbean, and E Honduras. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Sea with axis along 70W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will continue across the forecast waters through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb low was located just east of Florida near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N68W. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N51W to 25N64W to the N Bahamas near 25N77W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-32N between 45W-52W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the front. Over the W Atlantic, the low E of Florida near 28N80W will shift NE of the area Sun. An associated cold front will shift across the forecast waters through midweek. High pres will build in the wake of the front through the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa