000
AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia 
near 06N11W to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues westward from that 
point to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within
200 nm miles on either side of the boundaries west of 29W into 
the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb low pressure system was centered over the northeast Gulf
near 27N86W. A stationary front extends southwestward from the 
low to 27N95W, and eastward from the low to 27N82W across the 
Florida Peninsula to a low pressure on the east coast of Florida 
near 27N79W. The low is well depicted in visible satellite data. 
Scattered showers are north and south in the vicinity of the 
boundary and along the eastern Gulf coast. A surface trough is 
present along South Padre Island, Texas near 26N97W to the Bay of 
Campeche near 18N93W. 

The weak low pres over the NE Gulf will dissipate by early Sun. 
High pressure will then build and prevail across the area through 
Thu night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level anticyclonic wind flow, accomanied by widespread
sinking motion and dry air, continues across the entire basin. 
Low-level moisture is limited to the eastern half of the basin in 
the form of scattered to numerous stable low clouds. Moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds prevail over much of the Caribbean based
on ship and land observations. Brief near gale north of the coast
of Colombia noted in the latest ASCAT. 

Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to 
near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia through the forecast
period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will 
continue across the forecast waters through the forecast period. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018-mb low was located just east of Florida near 28N79W. A 
stationary front extended southwestward into central Florida and 
surface trough extended southward over the Gulfstream to the west
of Grand Bahama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted in radar and satellite data mainly east of the low, and 
also along 30 to 80 nm east of the trough.

Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N54W to the 
northern Bahamas to 26N79W. Scattered showers were occurring 
along and within 180 nm north of the front between 53W-57W to 
64W-70W. To the east of this feature, a pair of surface troughs 
were moving westward within brisk low-level easterly flow. The 
first trough extended from 30N52W to 20N56W, while the second 
trough extended from 22N50W to 11N51W. No significant convection 
was associated with the second trough. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is 180 nm east of the trough. High 
pressure covers the remainder of the area, anchored by a 1029 mb 
surface high centered near 36N18W.

Low pres just E of Florida near 28N80W will shift NE of the area 
Sun. An associated cold front will shift across the forecast 
waters through midweek. High pres will build in the wake of the 
front through the end of the week. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres