000 AXNT20 KNHC 021127 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 AM EST Sat Feb 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A Gale Warning in currently in effect for the Caribbean waters from 11N-12.5N between 73.5W-76W. These conditions will continue through this morning. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N11W to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 130 nm miles on either side of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb low pressure is centered over the north-central Gulf near 28N87W. A stationary front extends from the low to 26N92W, and from the low to 27N84W to 29N81W. This low is well depicted in scatterometer data, and scattered showers are observed mainly across the northeast quadrant. To the west, a surface trough extends from 27N96W to 19N95W. Expect for the low across to drift across the northern Gulf today before dissipating by early Sun. High pressure will then build across the area and prevail by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans across the basin. Abundant dry air is observed across the western Caribbean near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into western Cuba, while low level moisture is noted in latest sounding data across the Greater Antilles. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail over much of the Caribbean, as noted in scatterometer data. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A coastal trough extends along the west Atlantic from 29N80W to 31N79W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on radar and satellite imagery mainly north of 29N between 72W-80W. Further east, a stationary front extends from 31N52W to 23N79W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. To the east of this feature, a pair of surface troughs are analyzed. The first extends from 28N54W to 21N56W. The second trough extends from 20N50W to 12N50W. No significant convection is related to any of these troughs. High pressure covers the remainder of the area, anchored by a 1026 mb surface high centered near 33N33W. The stationary front over the west-central Atlantic will gradually become diffuse, with its remnants to slowly lift back to the N today. The coastal trough over the east Florida coastal waters will remain in is the area today before it shifts E-NE across the NW waters through Sun. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the trough on Sun, moving eastward on Mon night. High pressure will build in from the Carolinas early next week in the wake of the low and trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA