143 AXNT20 KNHC 020525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 AM EST Sat Feb 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A Gale Warning in currently in effect for the Caribbean waters from 11N-12.5N between 73.5W-76W. These conditions will continue through Sat morning. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N10W to 01S19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm miles on either side of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb low pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf near 27N95W. A surface trough extends from the low to 21N97W. A warm front extends east from the low to 27N92W, then becomes stationary from that point to 26N90W. Another 1017 mb low is centered near 28N88W. A cold front extends from the low to 26N90W. A warm front is noted from the low to 27N84W, then becomes stationary to 28N79W. This low is well depicted in scatterometer data, and scattered showers are observed mainly across the northeast quadrant. Expect for the low across the northwest Gulf to dissipate. The second low will shift across the northern Gulf through Sat before dissipating by early Sun. High pressure will then build across the area and prevail by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans across the basin. Abundant dry air is observed across the western Caribbean near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into western Cuba, while low level moisture is noted in latest sounding data across the Greater Antilles. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail over much of the Caribbean, as noted in scatterometer data. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A coastal trough extends along the west Atlantic from 29N81W to 32N79W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted in radar and satellite imagery mainly north of 27N between 77W-81W. Further east, a stationary front extends from 31N56W to SE Bahamas near 23N73W, then transitions to a warm front from that point to 23N78W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the stationary front. To the east of this feature, a pair of surface troughs are analyzed. The first extends from 28N54W to 20N55W and has no convection at this time. The second trough extends from 21N49W to 11N49W. Scattered showers are noted 200 nm to the east of the trough. High pressure covers the remainder of the area, anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered near 33N36W. The stationary front over the west Atlantic will gradually become diffuse, with its remnants to slowly lift back to the N as a warm front by early Sat. The coastal trough over the east Florida coastal waters will remain in place through early Sat before it shifts E-NE across the NW waters through Sun. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the trough on Sun, shifting eastward Mon night. High pressure will build in from the Carolinas early next week in the wake of the low and trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA