000 AXNT20 KNHC 011127 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISION-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The Forecast Outlook for the 24 hr period beginning 12 UTC Saturday shows the threat of near gale to gale-force winds for the areas Agadir and Tarfaya near the coast of Morocco. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 00N16W to 01S18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S32W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 03S-06N between 06W-17W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm of the ITCZ, and near the coast of Brazil from 04S-00N between 42W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, two 1015 mb surface lows are analyzed - one just inland in S Texas near 27N98W and the other near 27N94W in the western Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front connects the two lows. A warm front extends E from the Gulf low to 27N92W to 26N89W. A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from 26N95W to 20N97W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N-30N between 88W-94W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence and upper-level divergence in the area, as an upper-level trough is located just to the west, over the NW corner of the Gulf and east Texas. Strong E winds are observed within 90 nm N of the warm front. Strong SE winds are within 90 nm S of the warm front. Gusts to near gale are likely occurring in the stronger convection near the warm front. A trough extending near the coast of Texas from weak low pressure just inland over southern Texas will change little through tonight, then move inland by Sat afternoon. The combination of this trough and an upper-level disturbance moving across the NW Gulf will continue to lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving from W to E over the N central Gulf waters through tonight, and over a part of the NE Gulf on Sat. Otherwise, high pressure will extend from the Mid-Atlantic coast south-southwest to across the Gulf through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh tradewinds prevail over much of the Caribbean Sea, with an 01/0246 UTC ASCAT pass showing strong to near gales near the coast of Colombia. A few typical patches of broken low clouds and isolated showers are in the NW Caribbean from 17N-19N between 81W- 85W, but no significant convection is noted. Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to near gale at night near the coast of Colombia through the period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A coastal trough is along the coast of northern and central Florida. Scattered showers are seen along and within 60 nm east of the E coast of Florida. A stationary front extends from 32N57W to 22N77W. Scattered showers are seen near the front N of 29N, with isolated showers near the remainder of the front. To the E, a pair of surface troughs are noted. One extends along 50W from 19N-26N and contains no convection. The other extends from 20N42W to 15N44W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 15N-20N between 41W-45W, enhanced by an elongated upper-level low that is centered near 21N41W. High pressure covers the area N of 26N between 24W-50W, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 33N39W. A trough along the east coast of northern and central Florida will remain in place through early Sat before it shifts east- northeastward across the northwestern waters through Sun. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the trough on Sun. The low and trough will then begin to shift eastward Mon night as an upper-level disturbance moves from W to E across the northwestern part of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over these waters beginning on Sat. The stationary front stretching from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba will gradually become diffuse, with its remnants to slowly lift back to the north as a warm front beginning this evening or early Sat. Otherwise, rather weak high pressure will remain across the area through the period. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen