000 AXNT20 KNHC 010544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1244 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISION-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The Forecast Outlook for the 24 hr period beginning 00 UTC Saturday shows the threat of gale- force winds for the areas Agadir and Tarfaya near the coast of Morocco. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 00N17W to 02S20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 03S-05N between 05W-24W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen within 180 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 27W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb surface low is along the coast of southern Texas near 27N97W. A surface trough extends S along the coast of Mexico from the low to 19N96W. A recent ASCAT pass from 01/0250 UTC shows E-W surface troughing along 26N in the western and central Gulf of Mexico, so a new feature - either a trough or a front - will likely be added to the 06 UTC surface analysis. Aloft, a small, relatively weak upper-level trough is located over Texas. Satellite imagery and model analyses suggest that there is a weak mid-level disturbance in the vicinity, accompanying the upper- level trough. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico, N of 25N between 88W-96W, enhanced by the features mentioned above aloft and at the surface. A large area of strong to locally near gale winds are observed from 24N- 29N between 88W-95W. A separate surface trough is analyzed extending from South Florida to the Florida Keys to near 24N85W. Scattered showers are noted near southeast Florida and in the western Florida Straits. High pressure ridging from the Carolinas continues for the NE Gulf east of about 87W. A trough or weak frontal boundary over the western Gulf will linger through the end of the week, along with a weak low pressure area along it, before shifting NE Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging over the Carolinas will linger through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh tradewinds prevail over much of the Caribbean Sea, with a recent ASCAT pass showing strong to near gales near the coast of Colombia. A few typical patches of broken low clouds and isolated showers are moving W with the trades over the E Caribbean and in the NW Caribbean, but no significant convection is noted. Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from South Florida to the Florida Keys. Scattered showers are noted near southeast Florida. A stationary front extends from 32N58W to 26N66W and across the SE Bahamas to 22N76W. Scattered showers are noted along the front NE of the Bahamas, with isolated showers over the central Bahamas. To the E, a pair of surface troughs are noted. One extends along 48W from 17N-25N and the other extends from 19N41W to 16N44W. These features are in an area where an upper-level low prevails, near 20N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N-20N between 41W-45W. High pressure covers the area N of 27N between 23W-50W. Weak troughing across the western Bahamas to S Florida will drift NW and N through the end of the week, with a weak low pressure area possibly developing along it, before shifting NE through the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, an old frontal boundary from 28N65W to eastern Cuba will drift NW through Sat, becoming diffuse. Otherwise, broad high pressure will prevail on either side of the boundaries. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen