000 AXNT20 KNHC 311739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 00N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S35W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-05N between 05W-10W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02S-06N between 13W-23W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-04S between 36W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 26N97W to 20N96W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Further N, Isolated moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from 25N-29N between 92W-97W, mostly due to an upper level trough. 15-20 kt surface easterly flow is over most of the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds W of 90W. A broad ridge of surface high pressure, centered north of the area, will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. Moderate easterly wind flow will veer to southeastward, slowly, through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Patches of broken low clouds and scattered showers are moving W in the tradewind flow namely over the E Caribbean E of 70W, E Cuba, Jamaica and the W Caribbean from 14N-19N between 76W-82W, the Gulf of Honduras, Belize, Honduras, and N Nicaragua. High pressure will strengthen in the western North Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. Expect increasing tradewinds and building seas over most of the south central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds will be near the coast of Colombia each night through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 31/1500 UTC, scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from the N Bahamas to 31N, and W of 75W. A cold front is over the w Atlantic from 31N61W to 26N67W. A stationary front continues to E Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 25N44W to 17N45W. Another surface front is from 17N38W to 12N40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 18N-25N between 35W-42W. this convection is also enhanced by a large upper level low centered near 20N41W. Over the W Atlantic, surface high pressure centered over the eastern U.S. will shift eastward gradually through the weekend. Moderate northeast winds will veer eastward, slowly, through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa