000 AXNT20 KNHC 311115 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 615 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S29W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N between 06W-23W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 00N-03N between 34W- 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 26N97W to 19N95W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are west of 94W from 23N-27N. A 1029 mb high over Mississippi extends a ridge over most of the Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern half of the basin, with strong SE winds over the western half. The broad ridge of high pressure centered north of the area will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. Moderate easterly flow will slowly veer to southeastward through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a stationary front extends over E Cuba near 20N75.5W and ends near 19N76W. Isolated showers prevail over portions of Cuba, Jamaica and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh tradewinds over the central and eastern Caribbean, with strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. High pressure will strengthen over the western north Atlantic during the next few days, and bring increasing trade winds and building seas to most of the south-central Caribbean, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia each night through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W to the Florida Straits near 23.5N82W. A cold front extends from 31N62W to 25N70W and continues as stationary from 25N70W to 20N75.5W. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of both fronts. The CIRA Layered Precipitable Water product shows a band of enhanced low-level moisture about 120 nm wide along with the front that is farther east. A pair of surface troughs is noted farther east. The weaker trough is along 45W from 25N to 16N, and the other trough extends from 20N37W to 12N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-24N between 34W-42W. A large upper-level low centered near 20N40W is enhancing this convection. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N29W. High pressure centered over the eastern U.S. will gradually shift east through the weekend. Moderate northeast winds will slowly veer to eastward through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen