000 AXNT20 KNHC 310520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to 02N43W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N between 08W-23W. Scattered showers are from 06N-14N between the west coast of Africa and 29W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the Florida Straits from Andros Island near 25N79W to W Cuba near 22N84W. Isolated showers are over the Florida Straits. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 26N96W to 19N94W. Isolated showers are between the trough and the coast of Mexico. A surface high over the Ohio Valley extends a ridge over the northern and central Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern half of the basin, while fresh E to SE winds prevail over the western half. The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the upcoming weekend producing a moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE wind flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a stationary front extends through the Windward Passage from 21N73W to 18N75W. Isolated showers are along and within 210 nm west of the front to include portions of Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh tradewinds over the central and eastern Caribbean, with strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. High pressure will strengthen over the western north Atlantic during the next few days. This will bring increasing trade winds and building seas across the south-central Caribbean with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia each night through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to Andros Island near 25N79W and continues as a stationary front to W Cuba near 22N84W. A second, slightly stronger stationary front extends from 31N63W to 26N70W to the Windward Passage near 19N74W. Isolated showers are over the Florida Straits near the first front. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the second front, including over portions of eastern Cuba and the southeast and central Bahamas. The CIRA Layered Precipitable Water product shows a band of enhanced low-level moisture about 120 nm wide along with the second stationary front. A pair of surface troughs are noted farther east. The first is along 45W from 25N to 16N, and the second extends from 20N37W to 12N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-24N between 34W-43W. A large upper-level low centered near 19N40W is enhancing this convection. A 1027 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N28W. The cold front extending from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas will merge early this morning with the stationary front that stretches from 31N63W to the Windward Passage. The merged front will reach a position from 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by tonight, then stall on Fri while gradually dissipating. High pressure building over the forecast waters in the wake of the front tonight and Fri will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the waters N of 23N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen