000 AXNT20 KNHC 302332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of W Africa near 07N12W to 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of South America near 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-10N between 10W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front extends across the southeast Gulf waters from 23N85W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A 1035 mb surface high is centered over central CONUS and extending across the remainder of the basin in the wake of the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds over the eastern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western half. The front will stall over the Straits of Florida this evening and dissipate by Friday morning. The surface ridge will support moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a stationary front extends from NW Haiti near 20N73W to E of Jamaica near 18N75W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh tradewinds are over the central and eastern Caribbean, with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. High pressure will strengthen over the western north Atlantic during the next few days, causing trade winds in the south central Caribbean to strengthen. Strong winds will set up along the Coast of Colombia, with highest winds expected each night through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic extending from 31N69W to S Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A stationary front is also over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to the S Bahamas near 23N72W to NW Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is to the E of the front extending from 30N63W to 25N69W. A pair of surface troughs are noted from scatterometer data, the first is from 25N45W to 16N47W, and the second extends from 18N38W 14N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-23N between 31W-42W. A large upper-level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 21N39W enhancing this convection. A 1027 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N27W. Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will merge with a stationary front currently stretching from 31N65W to Haiti by tonight. The merged front will reach a position from 29N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu morning, then stall again on Fri while gradually dissipating. High pressure building over the forecast waters in the wake of the front Thu night and Fri will support fresh to strong trade winds over the waters N of 23N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA