000 AXNT20 KNHC 301734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1234 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W to 03N20W to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N35W to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-09N between 10W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 30/1500 UTC, the tail end of a cold front extends from S Florida near 26N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 23N85W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A 1025 mb high is centered over S Mississippi near 32N90W. 10-15 kt easterly surface winds are over the northern Gulf. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 19N95W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. The front will stall over the Straits of Florida this evening and dissipate by Friday morning. Otherwise, high pres over the western N Atlc will support moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds Fri through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 30/1500 UTC, the tail end of a stationary front extends from NW Haiti near 20N73W to E of Jamaica near 18N75W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. More showers are noted S of Jamaica from 14N-17N between 75W-83W. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the central and eastern Caribbean, with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. High pressure will strengthen over the western north Atlantic during the next few days, causing trade winds in the south central Caribbean to strengthen. Strong winds will set up along the Coast of Colombia, with highest winds expected each night through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 30/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to S Florida near 26N80W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A stationary front is also over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to the S Bahamas near 23N72W to NW Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 24N44W to 17N45W. Another surface trough is noted from scatterometer imagery from 19N37W to 14N37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-23N between 35W- 40W. A 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N26W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 21N39W enhancing convection. Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will merge with the stationary front by Thu evening. The resultant front N of 25N will continue to move E to 31N40W on Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa