000 AXNT20 KNHC 301111 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 611 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of W Africa near 09N13W to 07N20W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W to 00N39W to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N-07N between 10W-20W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-07N between 20W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-03N between 30W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Port Charlotte Florida near 26.5N82W to 23N87.5W. A stationary front continues from that point to 21N94W. Isolated showers are seen within 120 nm ahead of the front from 23N-26N between 81W-84W. A 1026 mb high centered over SW Mississippi is producing surface ridging over the northern Gulf. A surface trough has been added to the analysis at 0900 UTC over the western Bay of Campeche near the coast of mainland Mexico. Fresh NE winds are over the N Gulf. The cold front will stall today across the southern Gulf along 22N-23N. The western part of the front will drift northward on Thu while the eastern part remains nearly stationary over the Straits of Florida and dissipates. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N76W across Jamaica to 17N79W. Cloud cover and isolated showers are noted over Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the adjacent waters N of 16N between 72W-80W. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail E of 76W with strongest winds in the southern Caribbean. High pressure will strengthen over the western north Atlantic during the next few days, allowing trade winds in the south central Caribbean to strengthen. Strong winds will set up along the Coast of Colombia, with highest winds expected each night through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area near 31N76W and continues to near Vero Beach Florida near 28N80W to Port Charlotte Florida near 26.5N82W. No significant convective activity is noted. A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from Bermuda to 23N73W to E Cuba near 20N76W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front N of 25N. Farther E, a surface trough extends from 29N35.5W to 25N42W to 17N42W. This trough is the reflection at the surface of a broad upper-level low spanning from 16N-30N between 37W-47W. Numerous moderate convection is E of the trough axis from 15N-23N between 36W-43W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted elsewhere from 12N-27N between 34W-44W. Another surface trough extends from 14N30W to 07N37W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. The cold front that extends from 31N76W to Vero Beach Florida will stall from 26N65W across the SE Bahamas to the Straits of Florida by Thu afternoon. High pressure will build over the forecast waters in the wake of the front Thu night and Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen