000
AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of W Africa near
09N13W to 03N21W to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 
the coast of South America near 00N47W. Scattered moderate 
convection is along the boundaries from 01N-04N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to
23N93W to 19N95W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the 
front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds
behind the front, while gentle to moderate southerly winds 
prevail ahead of the front. 

Expect the front to continue moving southeast across the basin
tonight and Wed, then stall from the Florida Straits to near 
Veracruz Mexico by Thu morning. The front will drift northward and
weaken by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to 
16N80W, then becomes weak to 12N83W. Isolated showers are noted 
along the front. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail E of 76W 
with strongest winds in the southern Caribbean just N of Venezuela
and Colombia.

The stationary front will weaken and dissipate by Wed morning. 
High pressure will build N of the area by the middle of the week, 
strengthening winds over the south central Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 21N76W.  
Fresh to strong S winds are within 215 nm E of the front and N of
27N. Scattered moderate convection is along the front mainly N of
29N. Further E, a surface trough extends from 27N38W to 18N45W.
This trough is the reflection at the surface of an upper-level 
low that is centered near 24N41W. Scattered showers are noted
within 200 nm E of the trough

The front over the W Atlantic will weaken through Wed. The next 
cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight then stall 
from 30N65W to NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by Thu 
afternoon. High pres will build over the forecast waters in the 
wake of the front. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA