000 AXNT20 KNHC 290542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico very early this morning, just after 29/0600 UTC. Northerly gale-force winds are expected W of the front as it moves off the Texas coast, and as it moves S along the coast of Mexico today. Seas will build to 11 ft W of the front. These conditions will continue through early Wed. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of northern Sierra Leone near 09N13W and extends to 07N18W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N-06N between 04W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb surface high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N85W. A N-S oriented upper-level trough axis extends across the central Gulf. Scattered showers are seen over southeast Louisiana and adjacent Gulf waters N of 28N between 89W-92W. Over the western Gulf of Mexico S of 28N, moderate S winds prevail. As of 0300 UTC, a cold front is located 60 nm inland from the Texas Gulf Coast from 32N91W to 29N98W to 28N101W to 30N106W. The cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico within the next hour or two, shortly after 0600 UTC. Gales are expected behind the front. See section above for details. A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed along and within 30 nm ahead of the front and will be moving through the Texas and western Louisiana coasts east of Rockport Texas during the predawn hours. The front will move SE and stall over the southern Gulf from the Straits of Florida to near Tampico, Mexico Wed then drift N and weaken through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N84W. Scattered showers are seen between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Isolated showers are noted elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are in the W Caribbean within 120 nm W of the front. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail elsewhere E of 76W with strongest winds in the southern Caribbean just N of Venezuela and Colombia. The stationary front extending from E Cuba to S Nicaragua will gradually dissipate through today. High pressure will build N of the area by the middle of the week, strengthening winds over the south central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to the Central Bahamas near 23N75W to E Cuba near 21N76W. A recent scatterometer pass shows strong winds on both sides of the front N of 26N with near gales N of 28N within 120 nm E of the front. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the front N of 25N. Scattered showers prevail within 120 nm E of the front from E Cuba to 25N. Further E, a 1014 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 23N39W. A surface trough extends from 30N36W to the low center to 18N47W. An upper-level trough axis runs from 32N31W to 26N38W to 05N52W with two embedded upper-level lows noted on water vapor satellite imagery near 32N31W and 25N40W, respectively. The combination of the surface and upper-level features is enhancing scattered moderate rainshowers from 24N-32N between 26W-41W. The cold front over the W Atlantic that extends from 31N70W to E Cuba will stall from 31N65W to E central Cuba by this evening. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and shift SE to stall from 30N65W to NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Thu afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen