000 AXNT20 KNHC 280556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warnings... A cold front extends from West Palm Beach Florida to Havana Cuba. An ASCAT pass from around 28/0300 UTC indicates that N gales over the SE Gulf of Mexico are confined to the area east of a line from 22N86W to 25N83W. These gales will end by 06 UTC or 09 UTC this morning as the front clears the basin. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales and seas building up to 11 feet W of the front. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A cold front extends from near 23N82W to 19N85W to 15N89W. An ASCAT pass from around 28/0300 UTC shows N gales from 19N to W Cuba between the front and 86W, including over the eastern portion of the Yucatan Channel. The N gales in the NW Caribbean are expected to end by 06 UTC or 09 UTC today, with seas to 11 ft diminishing to 9 ft by late morning. The front will move SE with gradually diminishing wind speeds. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Two surface lows - one near 30N75W and the other near 27N79W - are connected to a frontal system that runs from 32N71W to 30N75W to 27N79W to West Palm Beach Florida. The lows are propagating NE along the front as the front moves E. N gales across the NW waters and offshore waters of NE and central Florida will shift NE through today and develop on either side of the front. The gales will propagate E, and be N of 29N E of 75W by early this afternoon, and north of the area by this evening. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 03N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moderate convection is S of 04N between 00W and 35W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are S of 03N between 35W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near West Palm Beach Florida to the lower Florida Keys to near Havana Cuba and into the NW Caribbean. Gales are over the SE Gulf. See section above for details. Scattered showers are in the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 85W. Numerous showers are over Florida. A line of strong thunderstorms along the cold front extends over the Florida Straits to Cuba, east of Havana. Higher pressure and mostly clear skies cover the Gulf W of 85W. The cold front will shift E of the area within the next hour or two. The gales in the SE Gulf of Mexico are expected to end by 06 UTC or 09 UTC today as the front pushes eastward. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales expected W of the front Tue. The front will stall over the southern Gulf Wed where it will dissipate through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Havana Cuba near 23N82W to 19N85W to the Honduras/Guatemala border near 15N89W. Gales are occurring over portions of the NW Caribbean. See section above for details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 20N to the S coast of Cuba between 80W and the cold front. Isolated showers are noted from the N coast of Honduras to 20N, W of 85W. The N gales in the NW Caribbean are expected to end by 06 UTC or 09 UTC today. The front will move SE and stall from central Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua tonight and gradually dissipate Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 0300 UTC, a pair of 1006 mb lows - one near 30N75W and the other near 27N79W - are connected with a stationary front between them. A warm front extends NE of the northern low to beyond 32N71W, and a cold front extends SW from the southern low to West Palm Beach Florida to the lower Florida Keys to Havana Cuba. A line of moderate to strong thunderstorms is seen along and within 120 nm east of the front from Cuba to 31N, including portions of the NW Bahamas and the waters to the east of South Florida. Scattered showers are elsewhere NW of a line from central Cuba to the central Bahamas to 30N68W. High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters between 45W and 65W as a ridge axis extends from high pressure centered near the Azores to near Hispaniola. Farther east, a 1012 mb surface low is centered near 24N38W with an occluded front wrapping N and NE of the low to near 31N37W to 31N32W. A surface trough that is related to the low pressure system is analyzed from 27N31W to 21N32W to 16N35W. These surface features along with an upper low support scattered moderate convection from 23N-32N between 23W-37W. The low near 30N75W will move N of the area early this morning while the low near 27N79W will move across the NW waters early this morning, and then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas later today. Gales are present N of the NW Bahamas E of N and central Florida. See section above for more details. The front will start to shift southeast in the wake of the low pressure, reaching from 31N71W to E central Cuba by this evening, before stalling and dissipating Tue. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen