000 AXNT20 KNHC 280002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 702 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warnings... A 1005 mb surface low pressure area is over the south central Gulf and an associated cold front extends from the low to southeastern Mexico. Gale force northerly winds continue within a couple hundred nm north of the cold front. These gales will end late tonight as the front clears the basin. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales and seas building up to 11 feet W of the front. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A cold front over the SW Gulf of Mexico is about to enter the Western Caribbean Sea this evening and move across the NW Caribbean through Mon. Brief northerly gales are expected just behind the front across the Yucatan Channel this evening through early tonight, with seas to 11 ft. The front will move SE and stall from central Cuba to SE coast of Nicaragua Mon night and gradually dissipate Tue. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Low pressure is just E of central Florida, along a frontal boundary that extends across south Florida and the southern Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure will move NE and will be N of the area tonight while a second low pressure along the front over the Gulf of Mexico crosses South Florida late this evening, then the NW Bahamas tonight and between Bermuda and the Carolinas Mon. Northerly gales over the N semicircle of the low will shift NW of the area early Mon. Meanwhile, northerly gales will accompany the second low and associated cold front as they move east of Florida late tonight. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 05N between 12W and 26W and from 00N to 04N between 01W and 06W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends across south Florida to a 1005 mb surface low near 24N85W. A cold front extends SW of the low and across the Yucatan Peninsula. The combination of the frontal system and surface low, and strong upper level forcing due to an upper trough in the region is supporting widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms over the eastern half of the Gulf basin. Gale force winds are also occurring over portions of the basin. Refer to the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the gales, fresh to strong northerly winds cover most of the Gulf to the north of the fronts, except gentle to moderate over the NW Gulf near high pressure. Fresh to strong southerly winds are over the extreme SE Gulf, to the south of the front. The low and cold front will shift E of the area tonight. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales expected W of the front Tue. The front will stall over the southern Gulf Wed where it will dissipate through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico is just about to cross the Yucatan Channel, and move across the NW Caribbean this evening through Monday. As of 2100 UTC it extended from 23N85W to 19N89W. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is within 90 nm SE of the frontal boundary. Brief northerly gales are expected just behind the front across the Yucatan Channel this evening and early tonight. The front will move SE and stall from central Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua Mon night and gradually dissipate Tue. Otherwise, most of the Caribbean Sea is relatively quiet with only typical isolated trade wind showers over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades cover the south central Caribbean, while mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere over the central and eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front extends from 31N74W to a 1008 mb surface low pressure area near 28N79W. A stationary front extends from this low to south Florida. A surface trough is east of the front and extends from 31N66W to 28N74W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of the frontal system and surface trough to beyond 31N, and within about 180 nm S of these features. Gale force winds are occurring over northern semicircle of the low. Please refer to the special features section for more details. High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters between 45W and 65W as a ridge axis extends from high pressure centered near the Azores to near Hispaniola. Farther east, a 1010 mb surface low is centered near 25N39W with an occluded front wrapping north and east of the low to near 31N36W to 31N31W, then transitioning to a cold front to near 20N31W. These surface features along with an upper low support scattered moderate convection from 21N to 31N between 23W and 36W. Also associated with this system is a surface trough that extends from 17N30W to 12N40W. The low E of Florida will move N of the area tonight while a second low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move across south Florida this evening. This second low will move across the NW Bahamas and NW waters tonight, and then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas Mon. N gales across the NW waters and offshore waters of NE and central Florida will shift NE tonight through Mon and develop on either side of the front. The front will start to shift southeast in the wake of the low pressure, reaching from 31N71W to E central Cuba by Mon evening, before stalling and dissipating Tue. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto