000 AXNT20 KNHC 271810 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A 1009 mb low pressure and associated developing frontal system is in the SW Gulf producing gale force winds, confirmed by a 27/0256 UTC ASCAT pass. Reinforcing high pressure will force the low to move ENE with gales continuing across the southern Gulf today and shift east as the low lifts across the NE Gulf. Gales in the Gulf will end late tonight as the front clears the basin. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales and seas building up to 11 feet expected W of the front Tue. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A cold front over the SW Gulf of Mexico is forecast to enter the Western Caribbean Sea this evening and move across the NW Caribbean through Monday. Brief N gales are expected along the front across the Yucatan Channel this evening and early tonight, with seas up to 11 ft. The front will move SE and stall from central Cuba to SE coast of Nicaragua Mon night and gradually dissipate Tue. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Low pressure just E of central Florida, along a nearly stationary front that extends across south Florida and the southern Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure will move NE and be N of the area tonight while a second low pressure that has developed along the front over the Gulf of Mexico will move across South Florida this evening, then the NW Bahamas tonight and between Bermuda and the Carolinas Mon. N gales are expected late this afternoon across the NW waters and offshore waters of NE and central Florida, and will shift NE tonight on either side of the front. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 04N09W and extends to 03N13W to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the proximity of the monsoon trough from 01N-04N between 09W-16W and S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 04N-00N between 10W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure just off central Florida and enters the Gulf of Mexico near 25N81W to 23N87W. The stationary front transitions to a warm front at that point to a 1009 mb surface low near 22N92W, then a cold front extends SW of the low to 21N96W in the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough extends SSW from the front from 21N94W to 18N96W. In the upper levels, deep trough is entering the Gulf stretching over portions of the SE United States. Portions of the central and northeast Gulf are under the right entrance region of the jet streak. The jet streak, combined with enhanced upward motion from an approaching mid-upper level trough over east Texas, is leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms covering much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico extending SW into the Yucatan Peninsula. Gale force winds are also occurring over portions of the basin. See Special Features section above for marine details. The developing cold will lift NE as reinforcing high pressure will force the low to move ENE with gales developing in a narrow band just behind the cold front. The front will move SE this evening and tonight and clear the Gulf with high pressure build across the N Gulf through Mon. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales expected W of the front Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the Caribbean Sea is relatively quiet with only typical isolated trade wind showers over the eastern Caribbean. The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will move into the Yucatan Channel late today, and move across the NW Caribbean this evening through Monday. Brief N gales are expected along the front across the Yucatan Channel this evening and early tonight. The front will move SE and stall from central Cuba to SE coast of Nicaragua Mon night and gradually dissipate Tue. NW swell prevailing over the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front extends from 29N74W to surface 1012 mb low pressure just off central Florida. A surface trough is east of the front from 30N66W to the central Bahamas. Near by radar indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring along and north of the warm front over the Atlantic between 74W and Florida, with numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Florida Peninsula. Isolated showers are near the surface trough. A 1010 mb low is over the central Atlc near 24N37W. This occluded low has an occluded front N and NE of the low, then a cold front extending from 31N31W. A surface trough is south of the low from 16N30W to 12N39W. Scattered showers and tstms extend 280 nm on the east quadrant of the low and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. A weak low pressure has developed just E of central Florida. The low will move NE and be N of the area tonight while a second low pressure that has developed along the front over the Gulf of Mexico will move across south Florida into the area this evening, then across the NW Bahamas and NW waters tonight, and then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas Mon. N gales are expected late this afternoon across the NW waters and offshore waters of NE and central Florida, and will shift NE tonight through Mon and develop on either side of the front. The front will start to shift southeast in the wake of the low pressure, reaching from 31N71W to E central Cuba by Mon evening, before stalling and dissipating Tue. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres